TimeformUS Pace Projector: Filly and Mare Sprint, Mile could favor closers

TimeformUS past performances include a Pace Projector for each race. This tool tries to predict the position of the field at the official first call of the race. The official first call is after a quarter-mile for races at less than a mile and after a half-mile for races at a mile or longer. The Pace Projector also attempts to predict when the pace might be fast or slow, based on the composition of the field along with the distance and surface of the race. With those things in mind, here are two races that appear most likely to be hotly contested and fast early. Closers usually take the worst of it in horse racing, but these races could be exceptions.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Seven-furlong races like this one usually don’t draw a lot of speed horses, but it is the Breeders’ Cup, so more are given the opportunity to go farther than they might otherwise be asked to run. A full field of 14 entered the Filly and Mare Sprint, and that alone almost guarantees the pace won’t be slow. The bigger the field, the more likely it is horses will be fighting to establish position in the early part of the race.

Many of the horses have shown early speed. The two most notable are Finley’sluckycharm and Princess Karen. Finley’sluckycharm has been on or near the lead early in all 12 career starts and has won nine of them. Princess Karen has led four of her six sprint races at the first call and has never been more than a neck behind at that point in the other two.

Several others in the field have shown plenty of early speed and will try to challenge for the front sooner rather than later. These include Finest City and Paulassilverlining, first and third in this race last year, as well as Unique Bella, Constellation, and Proper Discretion. Closers in this field won’t have a pace excuse if they can’t get the job done.

Top late threats: Highway Star, Bar of Gold, Skye Diamonds

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Mile

Turf racing in general is less speed-favoring than dirt racing, and when the pace is expected to be fast, horses racing toward the front of the pack face a daunting task. As with the Filly and Mare Sprint, a full field of 14 is entered. This is more problematic in the Mile, due to the shorter run to the first turn. Riders do not want to be caught wide around the first turn.

Three horses are assigned the running style of “Leader” for this contest – Midnight Storm, Heart to Heart, and Home of The Brave. The first two are confirmed front-runners that have drawn the inside two post positions and won’t want to get shuffled back. Home of The Brave has only run once in the United States, and that was in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint a year ago. The Timeform comments from his races in England show that he is a horse that wants to be up front and has made the pace at shorter distances.

A host of others figure to be waiting just behind this group and will try to mount an assault on the leaders before the second turn. North American-based runners World Approval, Om, and Blackjackcat have all won graded stakes races from forward positions.

Of the other European shippers, morning-line favorite Ribchester is the most dangerous and often looms just off the front-runners. He and World Approval are the most dangerous foes in the race and don’t need to be on the lead, but if they get caught too close to a blazing pace, this one could set up nicely for the late chargers.

Top late threats: Lancaster Bomber, Suedois, Ballagh Rocks