TimeFormUS horses in focus for Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021

RACE 9: BUY LAND AND SEE (#4)

Backtohisroots looked like a major contender in this race last year when he unfortunately stumbled at the start and lost his rider. He needed almost a year to get back to the races after that, but put in a good showing in his return at Saratoga last time. He was probably best in that Lucky Coin, as he got bumped out of position at the start and still almost ran down today's rival Pulsate in the final jumps. He does seem to do best when rallying from off the pace, but he once had the speed to get early position, and he has a tactically minded rider on his back. I’m using both he and Pulsate, but I’m interested in a lightly raced challenger at a bigger price. Buy Land and See has always had talent but he’s struggled to put together complete campaigns. He reeled off three consecutive victories between his 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons before settling for minor awards in a pair of stakes on this circuit late last year. He was beaten by some pretty good horses in that last appearance, but now he has to deal with another layoff. That said, he returns for Tony Dutrow, who is in the midst of a fantastic season. He’s 5 for 20 (25%, $12.06 ROI) with all turf starters over the last year, with 12 of those 20 finishing in the exacta. I loved this horse’s last workout breezing over the Belmont turf. He appears to be thriving now.

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RACE 10: FORZA DI ORO (#6)

Maxfield has been considered among the top older horses in the country all season, but he’s disappointed both times he’s tackled Grade 1 company this year. Perhaps the 10 furlongs of the Santa Anita Handicap didn’t suit him, and few horses would be able to challenge Whitney winner Knicks Go in that one’s current form. However, Maxfield has made a career out of winning lesser races against weaker company and now he’s facing another legitimate Grade 1 field. I’m also mildly concerned about the addition of blinkers this deep into his career. It feels a little desperate for a horse whose Breeders’ Cup Classic prospects have clearly diminished over the past couple of months. The obvious alternatives are Code of Honor and Art Collector. The former exits a visually impressive win at Monmouth, which earned a very fast speed figure. However, horses have not come out of that race to run well, and this 5-year-old has disappointed in his last few tries at the Grade 1 level. Art Collector is the “now” horse off his two victories for Bill Mott. He got perfect trips in both the Alydar and Charles Town Classic, and he has the tactical speed to get another favorable journey here. I’m using him, but I worry he could get overbet. I prefer the other Bill Mott trainee Forza Di Oro. He disappointed as the even-money favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup against a softer field than this. However, that was always going to be a tall order as he stretched out to 10 furlongs for the first time off a single prep race. He had to set the pace and faded, but that might not have been his preferred trip. This time he draws outside and should work out his preferred stalking journey. I like the turnback to 9 furlongs for a horse who has had plenty of success at Belmont Park. And unlike last time he figures to actually be a square price in this Woodward.

RACE 11: BEAU BROWN (#7)

The favorites in this maiden claiming finale do very little for me. Hot Doctor did have to wait in traffic last time until around the eighth pole when settling for second. However, he’s going to take money off that trip on dirt and his prior turf races are merely mediocre. Sportini is another who could take money, and it’s unclear how much ability he possesses. I wanted to go in a different direction and highlight some bigger prices. One horse who shouldn’t be ignored is Rogue Leader. This gelding put in a decent effort in his turf debut back in April and then lost all chance in his only other start on grass in May. He was traveling well on the backstretch, but he severely clipped heels at about the half-mile pole before fading. I expect a better effort as he returns for hot trainer Tom Morley. My top pick at an even bigger price is Beau Brown. This gelding finished towards the back of the pack in his debut, but he ran better than it appears in that race. He was forwardly placed in the opening furlong before getting shuffled back while racing greenly. The race was falling apart late, but he made mild progress while not strongly motivated. I like this claim by Mark Hennig for sharp connections, and am encouraged that he showed subtle improvement racing on dirt for the new barn last time. Now he’s getting back on the surface that he’s supposed to enjoy. His dam has produced 10 siblings to try turf and 7 of them won over it. He deserves another chance on the grass and he figures to be a generous price.