TimeformUS horses in focus for Saturday, July 9, 2022

RACE 7: MCKULICK (#1)

Among the European shippers in the Belmont Oaks, #10 Concert Hall is clearly the one to beat. While she hasn’t exactly been a win machine overseas, she’s kept strong company throughout the first half of this season. She was very game to defeat G2 Ribblesdale winner Magical Lagoon in the Salsabil going this distance in April. Her fourth-place finish in the English Oaks should translate well here, as the two fillies who preceded her across the wire are quite talented. I wouldn’t hold her off-the-board finish in the Pretty Polly against her, since she had a rough trip through the lane, shuffled back to last before coming on again. Plus, trainer Aidan O’Brien has used the Pretty Polly as a springboard to victory in this race with Athena and Santa Barbara. Her main American rivals appear to be the trio of runners from Chad Brown’s barn. The #3 Haughty could be the shortest price of the three, though she arguably has the most to prove. She ran well in the Breeders’ Cup last year, but she’s coming into this off one uncompetitive prep run going a mile. She has talent, but this is a big ask. The #5 Consumer Spending has obviously improved since her juvenile season, turning the tables on Breeders’ Cup winner Pizza Bianca two back. I don’t love the added distance for her, but she’s in strong form. My top pick is #1 McKulick. Though she owns just one victory, her career debut, she’s run deceptively well in all of her subsequent starts. I thought she was on the wrong part of the course for much of her trip in the Edgewood when New Year’s Eve got the jump on her. Then last time she rallied determinedly after the talented Walkathon spurted away, finishing best of all. She strikes me as one that should get the distance, and she’s drawn perfectly on the rail.

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RACE 9: NATIONS PRIDE (#10)

The European contingent is pretty strong in this Belmont Derby, as three runners exit the Epsom Derby, including a couple that were fancied as contenders in that spot. The #13 Stone Age is arguably the one to beat off his early season form in Ireland. Like last year’s Belmont Derby winner Bolshoi Ballet, he ran away to an impressive victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial before disappointing at Epsom, finishing sixth. Yet he’s coming to America encountering a stronger field than last year’s winner. Furthermore, he does his best running from the front end and there is other speed in here, particularly in the form of Classic Causeway and Emmanuel. I prefer #10 Nations Pride, who finished just behind Stone Age in eighth the Epsom Derby. He took a four-race winning streak into that race, and was particularly impressive when dominating the Newmarket Stakes two back, defeating eventual Derby runner-up Hoo Ya Mal by 7 lengths. I thought he had the toughest trip of the three exiting the Derby, and he figures to appreciate the cutback in distance. Furthermore, his trainer, Charlie Appleby, is 12 for 25 (48%, $4.36 ROI) in North American Grade 1 events over the past 5 years. The Americans all have some improvement to find, though a few have upside. The #9 Tiz the Bomb could take some money based on reputation, and he did run well in his turf races as a juvenile. I’m more interested in a couple of bigger prices. The #7 Sy Dog didn’t have a major excuse finishing third in the American Turf, and he's bred to stretch out and feels like one that has a right to continue improving. I also think we haven’t yet seen the best of #12 Limited Liability, who got rolling too late running third in the Pennine Ridge after lagging behind a moderate pace early.

RACE 10: BRADY’S LEGACY (#6)

I’m somewhat against #7 Salt Cay if he takes money in this New York-bred maiden special weight on turf. Chad Brown entered him for turf in both his starts, but the races were switched to the main track. He really doesn’t have much pedigree for this surface and will take money based on an improved dirt race last time. The problem with this race is that those with the strongest turf form have all had plenty of chances. The #5 Feathers Road is arguably the one to beat, but he hasn’t had major excuses in his last couple of losses on the turf, including a second-place finish on June 10. I actually preferred the effort of #1 Dreampoint in that June 10 race at this level, as he was left with more ground to make up and was closing fast before running out of ground. He figures to appreciate the stretch-out from six furlongs to seven furlongs, though his 0-for-16 record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. I just think he’s worth including given the likely price. My top pick is #6 Brady’s Legacy. This horse was a real head case last year. He was incredibly green at Saratoga in his debut, throwing his head about while fighting his rider after a poor start. He was only marginally better second time out, again breaking slowly before getting keen. That said, he did show some improvement in that second race, but was unable to finish after those early antics. Now he returns in the barn of Tom Morley, who can do good work with difficult projects like this. The horse is bred to handle turf as a son of Street Boss and a half-brother to multiple turf winner Kept Waiting, and the price should be fair.