TimeformUS horses in focus for Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023
RACE 5: COLLOQUY (#6)
I think you have to be afraid of anything Linda Rice is running off the claim lately, as her recent stats with that move are terrific. Through Thursday’s card, she’s 13 for 29 (45%, $3.12 ROI) first off the claim at Aqueduct over the past 3 months. If she can get Complete Agenda (#1) back into form in his first start for her barn, he’s obviously the horse to beat in this spot. He was running speed figures that tower over this field when he was in top form for Todd Pletcher earlier last summer. However, he tailed off after that and was a disappointing second as the favorite last time. I don’t mind the slight turnback for him, but he will need some pace to close into. I much prefer him to the other likely favorite Swift Tap (#2), who has beaten much weaker fields in his recent starts. I think Fromanothamutha (#4) could be dangerous as a gate to wire threat, as he’s one of the few in here who possesses early speed. He got back on track last time when stretched out to this distance, battling back gamely between horses to get the victory. He probably needs to improve on that effort to win here, but he does have some back class for the dangerous Ray Handal barn. My top pick is Colloquy (#6). I had thought this horse was somewhat interesting when he made his first start off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time, and he definitely showed some improvement for that barn. Racing over a sloppy surface, he achieved good early position and just seemed to stall a bit when trying to rally between horses in upper stretch. Yet it was a step in the right direction, and I think he has a right to move forward again in his second start for this barn. De Paz is 6 for 15 (40%, $3.85 ROI) second off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. This horse has handled route distances in the past and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip.
RACE 7: HAMMERIN AAMER (#10)
You have to make some decisions about a pair of significant dropdowns in this $25k claimer. I want no part of Musical Heart (#7), who could vie for favoritism as he returns from a 19-month layoff. This horse was obviously in great form during the first half of 2021, but something went awry when he was last seen in the Brooklyn and he’s been off ever since. Rob Atras doesn’t have great stats off layoffs and the massive class drop is obviously a concern. I’m a little more willing to place some faith in the other notable dropdown War Stopper (#9). It’s also a concerning class move, as he was claimed for $62,500 and the connections will surely lose money even if he wins and gets claimed. Yet this is something that we’ve seen David Jacobson do before. He’s more than willing to pick up a win and lose a horse for a little less than it might be worth. This horse also has recency, having run a decent race just 8 days ago. That was going much shorter, and he figures to appreciate the stretch-out in distance. Yet there are many others to consider in this fascinating race, and I wanted to get a little more creative. I considered Dust Devil (#12) as an alternative, since his victory for this claiming tag two back would make him competitive here. However, apprentice jockey Maddie Olver will have to work out a trip in this 13-horse field. My top pick at a bigger price is Hammerin Aamer (#10). He’s obviously not in great form right now, but I find it interesting that he’s been claimed back by Gustavo Rodriguez. He did well for Rudy Rodriguez when Gustavo was his assistant back in 2018 and 2019, and then seemed to recapture that form after a long slump when Gustavo claimed him for himself in 2021. He has since gone the wrong way again, but it’s encouraging to see him move up in class off the claim. I also didn’t think his last race was quite as bad as it looks, as he at least showed some improved tactical speed. I think we could see an improved effort, and he figures to be a fair price.
:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct
RACE 8: NEURAL NETWORK (#1)
I view Arctic Arrogance (#6) as a legitimate favorite in this Jerome. I could have put him on top, but I’m just a little concerned that he’s going to get bet down off his 8-5 morning line given his evident merits. And he deserves to be pretty short price in here, as he appears to have a class and speed figure advantage over his foes. He proved his quality in that game Remsen effort last time, and he’s handled this surface and distance before. The one concern I have is that he’s run his best races when he has the early lead, but at least he’s drawn well outside of his main pace rivals. I expect him to put in a solid effort, but I also recognize that this isn’t the primary objective for his connections. I’m only interested in two possible alternatives. One of those is Kentucky shipper Lugan Knight (#4). I thought this colt got a good education when he broke his maiden two back, as he had to wait in traffic in upper stretch before splitting foes. He then lost his first start against winners, but was making up ground late in a race won by subsequent Smarty Jones winner Victory Formation. I’m not sure how far he will ultimately want to go, but a mile should be in his scope. My top pick is Neural Network (#1). He didn’t earn the fastest speed figure on debut, as that 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure won’t quite get it done here. Yet he was flattered when third-place finisher Drake’s Passage came back to win. This colt just strikes me as one that will get better with more ground. That’s the impression I get from the progeny of Cloud Computing. Chad Brown also does very well with these types of runners. Over the past 5 years, Brown is 8 for 16 (50%, $2.44 ROI) with last-out debut winners going one mile on dirt. There appears to be some pace signed on, and he should be finishing strongly under Manny Franco, who just enjoyed a 6-win afternoon on Friday.