TimeFormUS horses in focus for Friday, June 4, 2021

RACE 6: COLORMEPAZZI (#6)

Brilliant Brooks is likely to go favored once again despite failing as the wildly overbet 8-5 choice in his most recent start. It seemed incomprehensible that he would have been a substantially shorter price than the winner of that race based on prior form, and indeed he proved no match for that runner. I’m more optimistic about Devil’s Code, the horse who finished directly ahead of Brilliant Brooks last time. He’s arguably the one to beat based on that vastly improved recent effort, as he delivered a strong stretch bid after stalking on the rail throughout. His prior form hadn’t hinted at that kind of ability, but perhaps this lightly raced colt is just putting it all together. I’ll use him, but my top pick is the likely speed Colormepazzi. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the early leader, and this horse is supposed to be the controlling speed. Eric Cancel rode him aggressively last time when committed to securing the lead despite engaging in a three-horse duel. Colormepazzi did well to put away those two pace rivals before opening up a sizable advantage in the lane. That was just a $30k conditioned claimer, but he nevertheless earned a competitive 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, the Chris Englehart barn has been one of the hottest stables in New York over the past month and a half.

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RACE 9: VIRGINIA JOY (#2)

While it only garners a Grade 2 rating, this New York Stakes has attracted a Grade 1-quality field. The morning-line favorite and horse to beat is the versatile Harvey’s Lil Goil, who kicked off her 4-year-old campaign with a victory in the Grade 3 Beaugay last month. That was only going 1 1/16 miles, but this gray filly has been effective over a variety distances, and arguably ran her best race at just a sixteenth shorter than this in the Breeders’ Cup last year. She possesses a versatile running style, so I wouldn’t be worried about her working out a trip. The only drawback is that she could go off at a short price in a very competitive race. Her main rival is arguably Mean Mary, who was bet down to 7-2 odds in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She didn’t produce her best effort that day but was hindered by the fact that she couldn’t get to the lead while chasing an honest early pace. She did what was asked of her in her return from the layoff, winning in workmanlike fashion after setting a pedestrian pace at Pimlico. She’s supposed to move forward with the stretch-out in distance, though it won’t be easy for her to defend her New York title given the overall strength of this field. I want to veer in a different direction, instead giving a shot to a filly with something to prove. Virginia Joy was a Group 3 winner in Germany, but came into Chad Brown’s barn earlier this year without much of a reputation. Yet she made a favorable impression in her U.S. debut, displaying a lovely turn of foot as she easily ran by talented stablemate Capital Structure. She obviously needs to take another step forward, but over 5 years Chad Brown is 12 for 33 (36%, $2.14 ROI) with last-out winners making their second starts off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes. There should be an honest pace for her to close into, and she figures to be a square price for these connections.

RACE 10: FANTASIOSO (#5)

European runners have dominated the Belmont Gold Cup in recent years, yet only one foreign runner has crossed the pond to compete in this edition. That horse, Baron Samedi, is a formidable presence in a race where the American-trained runners are generally unproven over this 2-mile distance. Baron Samedi has never negotiated this demanding distance, but he was successful racing as far as 1 3/4 miles last time out in Ireland, so there’s little concern about his stamina. The issue with Baron Samedi is that he’s fully exposed at this point, having won 6 races in a row while steadily rising in class. He had been an underrated handicap horse last season, but his recent form makes him the obvious choice against a somewhat uninspiring American contingent. I acknowledge he’s the horse to beat, but I’m not eager to accept a short price on him. There are a couple of intriguing alternatives that are based on this country, and both of them unsurprisingly began their careers on foreign continents. Ziyad is a fairly logical alternative as he stretches out to this marathon distance after meeting tougher company going shorter in his prior U.S. starts. He would be formidable based on his French form going back a couple of years, but there is some concern that he’s lost a step since then. I instead want to take a shot with the Argentine-bred Fantasioso. Like Ziyad, this horse has minimal exposure to U.S. audiences, having failed to hit the board in a couple of stakes tries earlier this year. Yet I thought he ran better than it might appear last time out in the Louisville when he never secured a clear path while attempting to rally in the stretch. He was stakes-placed going as far as 1 7/8 miles in his native Argentina, so there’s some evidence that he could handle this trip.