TimeformUS horses in focus for Friday, July 15, 2022

RACE 3: WHISTLER’S HONOR (#3)

Five horses exit a May 30 race from Belmont at this level. The #4 Biondi achieved the best result that day and figures to play out as the controlling speed here. However, he has found his way to solo leads twice in a row now, and he’s gotten run down each time. Trainer James Bond removes the blinkers, likely in an attempt to get him to finish more willingly. I believe he’s the horse to beat, but it’s not like his form makes him a standout and he figures to be a short price. The #6 Uragano arguably ran better than Biondi in finishing just a nose behind him. He broke outwardly from a wide post and had to be used early to run up into a stalking position. He did hang a bit in the late stages, but clearly improved on the turf and still has upside in his second attempt on this surface. Yet the horse that interests me most from that affair is #3 Whistler’s Honor. His results may not inspire much confidence at a glance, but both of his replays are worth watching. He was off slowly in his debut before putting in a strong stretch rally, hitting his best stride too late before galloping out past the entire field. He returned from a layoff in that common May 30 event, but was never given a chance to run. Jose Ortiz got him buried in traffic and blocked for the entire stretch drive. He’s clearly better than that, and should be more effective here if Ortiz can manage to work out a clean trip this time.

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RACE 6: BAR FOURTEEN (#2)

The #5 Straw Into Gold figure to attract support as he returns from a two-month freshening, going out for the dangerous combo of Joel Rosario and Christophe Clement. His form makes him a solid fit here, and he has the tactical speed to work out a fine trip. I’m not sure how much value he’d offer as the favorite, but he’s the one to beat. Most of his rivals exit a June 19 race at this level won by Chulainn.The #7 Ruse just got nailed at the finish and ran second. This Tim Hills trainee did well to nearly hang on after making the first move into the pace, and probably was not helped by drifting inside late. Yet he’s been in great form this year and ran well at the Spa last season. You wanted to race off the inside path on June 19 on the inner turf, which favored outside movers. The horse that may have been most compromised by his trip in that nine-furlong race is #2 Bar Fourteen. Not only is 9 furlongs a stretch for this guy, but he inherited the early lead heading onto the backstretch and was guided down to the inside, where he stayed for the remaining 6 furlongs of the race. He actually battled on gamely to finish fifth, all things considered. I also think his prior form is stronger than it appears, especially a victory three back from which multiple horses have come back to run well. Now he figures to play out as the controlling speed from the inside in a race that doesn’t feature many confirmed front-runners.

RACE 9: CITY MAN (#10)

I don’t have a strong argument against either favorite in this Forbidden Apple, but I do think that this is a competitive affair where it would be wise to search for value. The #1 Set Piece is arguably the horse to beat off his victory in the Dinner Party two back. However, he’s not the most reliable sort and he’s totally reliant on pace developing up front so that he can work out a trip from the back of the pack. His good effort will beat this field, but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price. I would say the same about #3 Mira Mission, who was in career-best form in Kentucky this past spring when last seen. He was one of the few who seemed to relish the quirky Churchill turf course, finishing second in the Turf Classic on May 7. But he had also run well at Keeneland and Gulfstream in prior starts. I’m most interested in two alternatives. One of those is #8 Atone, who was beaten on the square by Set Piece last time. Yet Atone was forced to race as a front-runner that day, which isn’t really his style. His prior form had been solid, as he actually finished ahead of both Set Piece and Mira Mission at Keeneland two back. My top pick is #10 City Man. It might appear to some that this NY-bred has gone off form in recent starts, but there are legitimate excuses for his two recent defeats. The turf course in the Fort Marcy on May 7 was as boggy as you’ll see anywhere in this country, and he simply didn’t handle it. Then last time he got a strange trip in the Kingston, taking the lead before getting reined in to stalk. He wound up in a pocket with nowhere to go in the stretch and got steadied repeatedly to the wire. In his victory April 9 in the Danger’s Hour, City Man showed that he’s capable of producing an effort that makes him a contender here, and he figures to get sent off at a square price.