TimeformUS Belmont Horses in Focus for Thursday, April 29, 2021

RACE 2: BIG BOY MO (#3)

Truebelieve is the horse to beat as he comes back for another try at this $14k conditioned claiming level. He ran well to be second in a similar spot last time behind the superior David’s Gem, and he stays in the Antonio Arriaga barn following that effort as his claim was voided by the vet. I’m not too concerned about that, as his form has been pretty consistent since moving into the Arriaga barn. He figures to get a good trip right up on a slow pace, if not leading early. I’m not against him and believe he deserves to be favored, but he doesn’t have much margin for error. I certainly prefer him to Joycee Has Pizzaz, who will be overbet with Irad Ortiz Jr. named to ride, and Imperio D, whose victory two back is looking more and more like a fluke. I’m instead taking a shot against the likely favorite with Big Boy Mo. This runner is simply getting needed class relief after facing a much better field at the $35k level last time out. That race was won by the improved Mr. Phil, who returned to lose in a tougher spot last weekend after setting a fast pace. Big Boy Mo finished nearly eight lengths behind that rival when they met on April 1, but he was compromised by a rough start. He had previously run well to win at the $25k N2L level two back, despite racing wide against a rail bias. He has the tactical speed to work out the right trip, and he should be a fair price with a low-profile rider named again.

:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Belmont

RACE 7: LOST IN ROME (#2)

Hometown figures to go to post as a heavy favorite as he makes his first start against winners after breaking his maiden last month at Aqueduct. This colt had shown promise competing at Saratoga for Rodolphe Brisset last summer, just missing in a nine-furlong maiden event. He’s now returned under Chad Brown’s care and posted a strong 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure to graduate going seven furlongs off the layoff. It was a workmanlike effort and it’s unclear what was behind him, but he won going away like stretching out again should suit him. I think he’s the most likely winner, but I’d be hesitant to accept too short a price on this favorite. Over the past five years, Chad Brown is just 2 for 14 (14%, $0.47 ROI) second off a 180+ day layoff in dirt routes with last-out winners. This colt may improve, but he’s also likely to be overbet. The problem is that there aren’t too many obvious alternatives. One who merits consideration is Dust Devil off his resounding six-length victory against starter-allowance company last time. However, he caught a sloppy track against a lesser field and now has to replicate that performance while moving up in class. I’d use him, but prefer a different alternative on top. Lost in Rome has tried this N1X level a few times without much success. However, he’s run better than it appears on a few of those occasions. He was racing against rail biases in each of his last two starts on Feb. 21 and March 14. He was off a bit slowly two back and faded after making a middle move. Then last time he was hustled aggressively away from the gate, but tired after engaging the superior Yankee Division in a duel. Now he finds himself in a spot where he figures to be the controlling speed, and the Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the leader. Furthermore, the Orlando Noda barn appears to have woken up recently, going 5 for 12 over the past two weeks.

RACE 8: MALTHAEL (#9)

Mr. Alec looks like the probable favorite as he returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement. He just missed at this level when last seen in November at Aqueduct, falling a nose short after launching a late thrust in the final eighth. This 5-year-old gelding has clearly run well enough to win at this level on multiple occasions, and possesses superior speed figures to most of his competitors. He also has handled the 1 1/4-mile distance, which is a question that others in this field still have to answer. However, he’s going to be a fairly short price and he’s already disappointed as the favorite on more than one occasion. I’m using him prominently, but I think this race is more wide open than it may initially appear. Once you get past the favorite, things get pretty muddled. I’m not a fan of either Pletcher runner, as Microsecond benefited from a speed-favoring Gulfstream course last time and Summer to Remember will be overbet with Irad named to ride. Dynadrive has the speed figures to make him a player and loves to win, but I’m a little skeptical about him stretching out in distance. I ultimately decided to go out on a limb and pick Malthael. I acknowledge that this horse isn’t a likely winner, but he got a ridiculous trip last time and he’s going to be a generous price. Wearing blinkers in his last start, he basically had a meltdown, as he fought his rider’s restraint for more than half of the race. He had every right to fade after exerting so much energy tugging at the reins early, but it’s not as if he totally fell apart. He finished sixth about six lengths behind the winner, but all five horses who crossed the wire ahead of him would be favored in this spot. That’s how strong that field was, and Malthael wasn’t disgraced. After that race I anticipated that I’d pick him in an easier spot off that trip, but Tom Morley keeps the faith by placing him ambitiously again. The horse is actually getting some minor class relief here, and those pesky blinkers come off this time. I don’t know if he’s quite good enough to win, but I think he’ll outrun his odds.