Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: War Stopper ready to step up in class off the claim

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:55 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

This race definitely loses much of its appeal after the scratch of likely favorites No Burn and Unbridled Bomber. Kinetic Sky (#6) might now inherit the favorite's role, and he figures to be forwardly placed as he stretches back out in distance to 9 furlongs, especially after No Burn's scratch. I’ve generally liked him going a bit shorter than this, but he did arguably run the best race when he tried two turns here back in October, only losing by a nose after a wide trip on a day when the inside may have been an advantage. I actually prefer the Lynn Cash entry, giving some preference to Treasure Trove (#1A). He appreciates the distance, though a lack of pace doesn’t figure to help him much.

My top pick is still WAR STOPPER (#3). He’s stepping way up in class off a $25k claiming win last time, but that was an unusually strong race for the level. Runner-up Musical Heart had plenty of back class against stakes company, and War Stopper absolutely demolished that rival and all the rest by 9 lengths. The horses who have run back out of that race have generally improved in their next starts, including fifth-place Hammerin Aamer and seventh-place Grumps Little Tots, who both came back to win. War Stopper earned a competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance and evidence points to that number perhaps being conservative. He now goes out first off the claim for Rob Falcone, who has trained this horse in the past. Falcone is 8 for 29 (28%, $2.80 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners over the past 5 years.

THE PLAY

WIN: #3 War Stopper, at 7-5 or greater