Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Valmont figures to get favorable pace setup

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

The TimeformUS Pace Projector isn’t predicting a situation favoring any particular running style in this New York-bred optional claimer, but I don’t see that much speed signed on. Freewheeler was depicted as the early leader on the Pace Projector, but now he's scratched.

I think VALMONT (#8) is going to the front here, and I believe he’s a major threat to lead this field from gate to wire. Some will be deterred by the presence of Jalon Samuel, but he rode this horse very well to a minor award at this level two back. Valmont encountered some traffic last time at Monmouth, so I don’t want to be too hard on him for that loss. Furthermore, impressive winner High Light Room might be faster than any rival Valmont meets in today’s race. I don’t think Valmont is the best horse in this race, but I can envision him working out a favorable setup and there are some others in here at much shorter prices that I just don’t trust.

Shiraz (#7) is always some kind of factor in these races, but he’s never been the most reliable win candidate and his recent form is fairly spotty. I suppose some might consider Dancing Buck (#5) the horse to beat off his runner-up finish at this level last time. However, I thought he got a great trip that day when allowed to dole out fairly slow fractions up front before yielding to Call Me Harry in the stretch. Perhaps turning back to six furlongs will work out for him, but I don’t think he has any significant edge over this field. My bomb to use underneath is Steelersfanforlife (#2). This horse did not get the right trip off the layoff last time and can do better, though six furlongs may be a little sharp for him.

THE PLAY

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 5,7 with 2,4,5,7,11