Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Turnback should suit Juliet On Approach

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:44 p.m. (ET)

This state-bred maiden special weight is one of the most competitive races of the day. Solid cases can be made for 6 of the 7 runners, with only the first time starter looking like a true longshot.

I pegged Juliet On Approach (#6) as the lukewarm morning line favorite, but I think she's more likely to win than that tepid status would suggest. This filly came to hand at Woodbine late last year, finishing second in a pair of sprints. A stretch-out was unsuccessful in December, and then she was forced to switch to dirt when the Woodbine season concluded. However, instead of turning her back to sprints, she was entered twice more going a mile. She ran reasonably well in her first dirt attempt at that distance, but failed to finish after contending for the lead in upper stretch. She faded more dramatically last time, but she also was racing wide against a pretty strong rail bias. I just don't think she wants to go that far, and now she's finally cutting back to 6 furlongs. I'm not trying to beat her.

Among her main rivals is the 3-year-old filly Kaz Farm Girl (#7), who also cuts back from a mile after racing against the rail bias last time out. She did perform better sprinting two back, but that was over a good, sealed track and it's really her only prior effort that makes her competitive here. Garden of Grace (#3) is another to consider after she, too, was wide against the rail bias last time. She hasn't yet run very well on dirt, but she has had excuses. I just don't think either is as likely to win as my top pick.