Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Summer Cause ready to take on tougher in return to New York
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 12:10 p.m. (ET)
The opening race of the Aqueduct fall meet only drew six runners but it’s an evenly matched group where you can easily make a case for all but perhaps recent $10k claim Barese. Chad Brown sends out a pair of uncoupled contenders, led by last-out winner Moore’s Law (#4). This gelding isn’t the most reliable sort, having been beaten by a combined 58 lengths in his pair of starts sandwiched between his two victories. However, he earned a solid 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his recent victory, a number that makes him good enough to beat this group if he can repeat it. The downside is that he benefited from a fast pace that day, and now lands in a spot that isn’t expected to feature as competitive a pace scenario up front.
His stablemate Army Times (#3) is likely to lead this field early, but finishing off his races has been a problem lately. He put forth a career-best effort to beat allowance foes at Monmouth in the summer of 2023, earning a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He hasn’t run that well since, and more was expected of him when he returned from a layoff last time at Parx. Yet perhaps he needed that race as a tightener, so I won’t be surprised when he runs better this time.
The logical options with experience at this level are Magic Michael (#5) and Costa Terra (#6), both of whom lack early speed. Magic Michael ships in from Parx for Jamie Ness as a 14-time winner in a race where most others haven’t achieved more than two victories in their careers. He’s reasonably consistent and has no issues with the distance. Costa Terra is more familiar to the NYRA circuit, having made 11 attempts to break through this allowance condition here over the past couple of seasons. He obviously doesn’t win much, but he figures to give a good account of himself if he can bounce back from a rare poor effort last time.
My top pick is Summer Cause (#1), who obviously has to get a little faster to beat this field. He only got a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his recent win when returning from a layoff at Monmouth. Yet I liked the tenacity he showed on that occasion, battling back inside after getting passed at the quarter pole. He was allowed to set a moderate pace, but he didn’t seem totally comfortable in front, losing focus while apparently jumping a shadow on the backstretch. Notably he achieved that win in his first start as a new gelding. This 4-year-old always had ability, trading decisions with the likes of Tapit Trice early in his career. It’s taken him a while to figure things out, but he figures to get the right stalking trip and should be capable of a step forward second off the layoff. He’s a horse who needs constant motivation to run his best race, so Romero Maragh should be the right fit.