Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Starsinthecity can beat the boys on class drop

Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:42 p.m. (ET)

Egyptian Quest (#8) looks like the right favorite as he drops in for a tag for the first time on turf. He did compete at this level on dirt last time, but he’s clearly a much better turf horse. A repeat of his return effort in July at Monmouth would make him awfully tough for this field to beat. He was facing open company that day, and the form has been validated by winner Horsepower, who returned to just miss against winners with a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure before winning with a 114 sprinting on turf two starts later. He needs some pace to close into, but he’s spotted at an appropriate level and should be charging late under Irad Ortiz Jr.

I much prefer that runner to the other likely short price, My Life Story (#9). This colt has run some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but those numbers were all earned over route distances. He’s never sprinted before and his pedigree doesn’t exactly suggest that cutting back will suit him. He’s gone off form in recent starts and it feels like the connections are just trying something new out of desperation.

Mazzei (#2) is a little more interesting cutting back in distance. He actually started out as a sprinter, running well in his career debut going this distance. He subsequently disappointed in his next two starts, throwing in the towel on the far turn each time. However, he seemed to wake up last time when dropped in class, showing better early speed around two turns. He’s now cutting back and switching into the barn of Kevin Bond, but he fits with this group if he decides to show up this time.

My top pick is the lone filly in the field, Starsinthecity (#7), as she drops in for a tag for the first time. She achieved her best result as a 2-year-old when finishing second at the maiden special weight level in November. She led early before getting run down by a 50-1 first-time starter without much excuse. While it looks like she hasn’t progressed since returning this year, her turf sprint effort in July is better than it appears. She got bumped between horses and squeezed back at the start, and actually made some decent progress to pass horses in a race where the pace held together. Her dismal effort last time is a concern, but that pace seemed to take its toll on the leaders. I think she deserves another chance sprinting, and the class relief is appropriate for a trainer who does well with drop-downs like this.