Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Rungius stretches back out to preferred distance

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:16 p.m. (ET)

This allowance optional claimer only attracted 6 entrants, but it might be the most competitive race on the entire Thursday card. There is no standout among this group, and there's a legitimate case to be made for just about every horse in the field. The lukewarm favorite on my morning line is Macallan (#1), who steps up in class after winning his return against first-level allowance competition in Florida. He got a great setup in that spot, as he sat far off the early pace and gradually wore down the leaders with a relentless rally. He has to improve on that effort to beat this field, but he had run some nice races on this circuit last year, including a good second at this distance. I also suspect he may be ridden for more early position this time with Kendrick Carmouche getting back aboard.

Good Skate (#5) figures to attract some attention based on his solid record at this uncommon distance, 2 wins and a second from 4 starts. He achieved some speed figures last year that might make him the horse to beat in this spot, but he went to the sidelines after getting eased in the Grade 2 Surburban. He returned in a $50k claimer and got the victory, though he wasn't the first horse across the wire that day. His main rival, even-money favorite Certified Loverboy, dropped his jockey but ran on riderless to lead the field through the stretch. Good Skate has to run better if he's to beat this field, but perhaps the added distance will work for him.

Peek (#4) seems like a logical contender as he seeks to extend his strong recent form since the claim by Linda Rice. He stretched out to 9 furlongs effectively in his last couple of starts, and was flattered when last-out winner Masmak returned to triumph against a tougher field next time, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 7 points. His tactical speed should play well in a field lacking much early pace.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners, and that should also benefit Rungius (#3). He tried to contest the pace going the shorter one-turn mile distance last time off a long layoff, but he understandably tired in the stretch. That was probably just a tightener after spending so much time on the sidelines. This is a horse who excelled when stretched out to these elongated route distances last winter. He beat today's rival Macallan going this distance in March 2024, and then he went on to race effectively in 11 and 14-furlong affairs. He won't need to call upon all of that stamina here, but the longer distance should afford him his preferred trip, sitting on top of a moderate pace and grinding out steady splits. He gets a jockey upgrade to Javier Castellano, and the price should be fair.