Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Reddington looks to rebound off the claim

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:22 p.m. (ET)

The Chad Brown entry of Reasoned Analysis (#1) and Leading Contender (#1A) is likely to attract support in this allowance/optional claiming race, even though both are coming off subpar efforts. Reasoned Analysis at least has a start under his belt this year, competing in a sprint allowance last month where he picked up some pieces to finish a distantly beaten third. He does own a maiden victory over this distance, but his lack of early speed makes him pace-dependent. Stablemate Leading Contender is arguably the stronger half of the entry, having hit the board a few times at this level last year before putting in an uncharacteristically dull effort when last seen at Saratoga in June. He may prefer slightly longer distances than this, but Chad Brown does well off layoffs of this type.

Among the short prices, I feel more comfortable trusting Treaty Obligation (#5), who has a recency advantage over the Brown duo. Treaty Obligation put together a series of strong efforts after getting claimed by Linda Rice late last year, and he just missed when competing at this level in January. He did put in a disappointing effort last time, but he stumbled awkwardly at the start and was always out of position in a race dominated on the front end. He should fare better stretching back out to a mile.



My top pick is Reddington (#4), who is also looking to rebound from a couple of disappointing performances. This gelding came into the best form of his career for prior trainer Ed Barker last summer, and he held that form into the fall. He struggled to hit the board when stepped up to this N2X allowance level, however, and was particularly disappointing in his last effort for this condition on Feb. 8. He dropped in for a $50k claiming tag last time and performed slightly better, checking in third in a strong race for the level. He was claimed out of that spot by Flying P and Gustavo Rodriguez, who is 10 for 37 (27 percent, $2.82 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over 5 years. His best efforts fit at this level if he can get back to that form for the new barn.