Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Quiddity takes on open company in second start

Belmont at the Big A | Race 5 | Post Time 3:20 p.m. (ET)

I don't have a major knock against likely favorite Ms Sophistication (#3), who ran very well to finish second on debut at this level. Jorge Duarte doesn't always have his horses ready to produce their best efforts first time out, and she is likely to benefit from that run. Duarte is a solid 11 for 53 (21%, $2.45 ROI) with second-time maiden starters over the last 5 years, according to DRF Formulator. She's a logical contender, and she did work out a very good trip sitting on top of a moderate pace when I thought others had a bit more upside.

Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners, including first time starter Britain (#9). This daughter of Quality Road sold for over $1 million after working a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds at OBS March earlier this year. Her dam was a talented runner who won over a half-million dollars, primarily racing in dirt routes. She's been training up in Saratoga since early summer, so she figures to be fit for this unveiling. Drawing outside can't hurt for a first-time starter, but she's likely to take money given the purchase price and connections. Chad Brown can win on debut, but his statistics suggest these types are often overbet.

My top pick is second-time starter Quiddity (#5), a New York-bred moving up to face open company. I'm not concerned about the rise in class, since she chased home a pretty talented rival on debut. Race winner Oh came back to win her second start against stakes company at Finger Lakes with a 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure, validating the number she earned on debut. Quiddity crossed the wire second behind that foe but was disqualified to fourth for interference in upper stretch when she dramatically angled out into another runner, impeding that rival's progress. Looking past the demotion, she might have actually put forth the best performance, since she was compromised by getting bumped hard and squeezed back between rivals at the start. I expect that she can show more speed with a clean break this time, and she's getting a notable rider switch to Ricardo Santana.