Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Peak Popularity finally gets another chance on turf
Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:18 p.m. (ET)
It’s pretty obvious that Aspen Grove (#5) is the most accomplished horse in this optional claiming field. She’s a Grade 1 winner from last season who has been competitive at the graded stakes level this year. I didn’t think very much of the field she beat in the 2023 Belmont Oaks at the time of her upset victory, but she has since validated that form with a string of consistent efforts against top rivals. She was compromised by a slow pace in the Hillsborough this winter, and last time was just a little overmatched against some of the best turf fillies in the country in the Grade 1 New York. My only concern with her is the stretch-out to 1 3/8 miles. While she did win going 10 furlongs last year, she used a sprint finish to do so, and it’s unclear to me if she possesses the stamina to excel at this trip.
I do prefer her to the other filly dropping out of the New York, Be Your Best (#1). That was far too ambitious a spot for a filly who has been a bit of a disappointment ever since winning the first two starts of her career. The connections are finally taking a step back, dropping her out of stakes company for the first time in two years. I just have the same doubts about her ability to go this far, and she figures to be a short price due to her company lines and the presence of Irad Ortiz.
My top pick is Peak Popularity (#3), who switches back to turf for just the second time in her career. Her only prior turf attempt came following a 7-month layoff in her first race around two turns. She disappointed as the 4-5 favorite that day, but she seemed to get over the surface well, hitting her best stride too late after racing greenly and appearing to lose focus on the far turn. She’s since run some faster speed figures on dirt, using her stamina as a weapon. I think that staying power could translate better to this 11-furlong grass affair than it did that fast-paced shorter race early in her career. I love progeny of Mendelssohn on the turf, and I have always gotten the sense that this filly should be more turf-inclined. She has the tactical speed to get forward in a race that doesn’t feature much pace, and she could be the rare runner for this barn that actually goes off at a square price.