Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Outside draw gives edge to Excellent Timing in Affirmed Success
Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 2:05 p.m. (ET)
Rotknee (#1) is clearly the most accomplished member of the Affirmed Success field, having won his last seven races against New York-bred company, including five stakes events. Perhaps this drop in class is all he will need to rebound after he disappointed against Grade 3 foes in the Tom Fool last time. He got involved in a contested pace and threw in the towel through the stretch over a sloppy track. I can’t use the track condition as an excuse since he’s run well over wet surfaces before. One concern I have is that he’s been competing with regularity for over a year at this point, and it’s possible he’s just tailing off a bit. He also drew inside of his main pace rival, which could force Manny Franco to get aggressive, or potentially take back if the horse doesn’t break alertly.
I have never been the biggest fan of Excellent Timing (#5), who possesses a great deal of speed but has trouble carrying it all the way more often than not. However, I think he’s come back with a couple of solid efforts since returning from a layoff this year. He had a right to get leg-weary off the layoff two back when beaten by a good horse in Be the Boss. Then last time he just went way too fast up front, carving out some quick splits before fading to third behind a pair of rivals who would be vying for favoritism in a spot like this. Now he’s drawn perfectly outside Rotknee, allowing Dylan Davis to dictate terms to that foe. The TimeformUS Pace Projector even suggests he’s a little quicker early, in a scenario favoring the front-runner. The horse has to prove he belongs at this level, but he’s going out for a dangerous barn and has TimeformUS Speed Figures that suggest he’s among the most talented horses in here.
If the race comes apart Donegal Surges (#2) and Sheriff Bianco (#3) are the two most logical alternatives. I just think Donegal Surges has some things to prove from a class and speed figure standpoint as he moves up out of the allowance ranks. Sheriff Bianco has certainly run races in the past that could beat this field, but he tends to settle for minor awards and might need a start off the layoff.