Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: One Headlight gets better pace setup
Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:22 p.m. (ET)
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There is supposed to be an honest pace in this race given a concentration of speed drawn towards the inside. Both Indian Mischief (#2) and Spiritual King (#3) appear to be need-the-lead types, and Laurel Valley (#8) has also done his best recent running when able to control the pace. Therefore, it is no surprise to see the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace.
The horse who figures to benefit most from this scenario is my top pick One Headlight (#9). This horse has talent, but circumstances have forced him to settle for minor awards more often than not. He should have won his career debut when stumbling at the quarter pole before running on belatedly for second. Two starts later he earned his only victory when overcoming a slow pace and wide trip to win going this distance. He lost twice at Saratoga, but was compromised on each occasion. He was hampered by a slow pace going a mile two back in a race dominated by frontrunners. Then last time he never saw the rail in a race where the top two finishers rode the inside path. He was closing best of all at the end, but ground loss got him beat. I like him getting back out to 9 furlongs here, and the pace is supposed to be in his favor this time.
The other obvious player is Clear Conscience (#4), but I thought he was fortunate to beat One Headlight when he broke his maiden. He met a good field in his first attempt versus winners on June 10, but was somewhat disappointing last time. The trip didn’t work out as he got stymied behind runners in the stretch, but I still thought he was a bit dull. Now he returns from a layoff as a new gelding.
One other horse I would throw into the mix underneath at a price is Mr. Kringle (#7). He probably doesn’t want to go this far, but he had some tough trips through the spring and summer. He got a better ride last time, but was always out of position in a forwardly dominated race.