Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Moonlight Promises should relish switch to turf
Saratoga | Race 6 | Post Time 4:02 p.m. (ET)
Pop Idol (#3) is sure to attract support coming out of a third-place finish over Woodbine’s synthetic course, where she earned a respectable 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She got a pretty good trip that day, taking the lead in midstretch before getting overhauled late by a longshot winner. Now she switches to grass for George Weaver, who is just 2 for 22 (9%, $0.94 ROI) with horses going from synthetic to turf over the past 5 years, and 1 for 12 with maidens in that sample. She’s by decent turf influence Maclean’s Music, but the dam was strictly a synthetic performer who was off the board in both turf starts, and she hasn’t produced a turf winner. I prefer others.
There are a couple of first-time starters who appear to be working well. The most dangerous of those might be Rematch (#1), a daughter of good turf sprint influence The Factor, hailing from an excellent female family. This dam has produced 9 winners, topped by Grade 1-placed turf horse Closing Bell, Grade 2 dirt stakes winner Hear the Ghost, and Grade 1 Spinaway winner Mani Bhavan. There’s a good mix of turf and precocity in this pedigree. Shug McGaughey is just 3 for 21 (14%, $1.17 ROI) debuting in turf sprints over 5 years, but this filly has been working forwardly. Joe Sharp also doesn’t have the strongest statistics with his debut runners, but his Mean Eileen (#9) also comes in with credentials to win first time out. Twirling Candy is an excellent debut influence, and the dam is out of Grade 1 turf winner Rutherienne, who earned over $1 million on grass. Her July 14 turf workout was in company with stakes-placed turf sprinter Parola Sicura, and she held her own.
I’m most interested in a couple of experienced fillies going out for Mark Casse. The more obvious of the two is And One More Time (#8), who sold for $750K at auction. She’s a half-sister to turf stakes winners Churchtown, Honor D Lady, and Grade 1 Natalma runner-up Simply in Front, so there’s definitely pedigree for the surface switch. She also got a very conservative ride on debut, not ridden for speed before gingerly handled in traffic late.
My top pick is the other Casse runner Moonlight Promises (#7), who might get dismissed at a slightly higher price. She showed good speed on debut before fading behind a Wesley Ward-trained rival. The turf pedigree on this filly isn’t as obvious, but her dam was a stakes winner on turf. Sire Promises Fulfilled hasn’t yet established himself as a turf sire, but he’s a son of excellent turf sprint influence Shackleford, so I won’t be surprised when his progeny take to this surface. I like the way she got over grass in that July 5 Oklahoma drill, and Mark Casse has excelled with second-time starters so far at this meet.