Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mo Kreesa finds favorable pace scenario in first start off the claim
Saratoga | Race 4 | Post Time 2:52 p.m. (ET)
Miztertonic (#7) has to be considered the horse to beat after twice finishing second at this level in his last two starts. He won over this course last year, and has generally run well in all of his turf starts since. He beat a weaker group of starter allowance foes off the layoff in May before stepping up to this level. He did lose some ground when closing wide in June, and then couldn't catch a gate-to-wire winner last time. That horse certainly improved switching to turf, but it still wasn't the strongest field for the level, hence Miztertonic's odds-on favorite status. He's the horse to beat, but his running style may hinder his chances.
Another closer who may be up against it from a pace standpoint is New Matthew (#2). It seemed like a strange decision for the connections to send this horse to a different trainer at Finger Lakes when he returned this year, since his best effort as a 2-year-old had come on the turf. He earned a 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that lone turf performance, and that number could easily improve 10 or more points with routine progression as an older horse. He finished second to future stakes winner George Briggs on that occasion, finishing well after negotiating some traffic. I like him going back to David Donk and getting on this surface, but his lack of early speed is a concern.
My top pick is Mo Kreesa (#5). This horse had been entered just a week ago and was forced to scratch due to a paddock incident, but he is reportedly no worse for wear. He now makes his first start off the claim, picked up out of a low-profile barn by new trainer Mark Hennig, who is 5 for 24 (21%, $2.95 ROI) off the claim over 5 years. This horse has clearly improved since getting back on turf this year, chasing talented New York-breds like Rhetorical and Leon Blue. He dropped in class to get the victory against much weaker last time, but he ran well within the context of that race, pressing a fast pace before holding off the closers. His early speed should put him on the lead, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners.