Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Mirabella tough to beat if able to repeat last

Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:34 p.m. (ET)

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Chad Brown sends out a couple of fillies who could take money in this maiden event. First-time starter Notinamillionyears (#3) appears to be well prepared for the debut. This expensive daughter of No Nay Never is a full sister to allowance performer Emboite and has been working well for this career debut. Brown is 5 for 15 (33 percent, $2.82 ROI) with 3-year-old first-time starters in Saratoga turf routes over the past five years. Brown’s other runner Tangential (#1) also makes some sense after having to overcome some traffic in her lone turf race at Aqueduct last fall. She’s a candidate to do better now with routine improvement.

The real enigma for me in this race is Isola (#6). I liked her debut in France quite a bit, as she made a strong run through the stretch, battling with eventual winner Bravais, a colt who has some talent, as the two finished well clear of the rest. However, she returned from a layoff last time switching to Jack Sisterson in her U.S. debut and appeared to take a mental step backward. She got very rank into the first turn and was wrangled to the back of the pack while refusing to settle. Jose Ortiz just let her coast home that day without asking for much. I would hope that was just a fluke as she now gets a switch to Luis Saez. However, watching her recent workouts, Sisterson has tried to train her behind horses and she has continued to get extremely rank. There is talent here, but I’m not confident that the trip will work out unless they send her to the lead, which doesn’t seem like the plan.

My top pick is Mirabella (#7). I just think this filly has had the misfortune of running into some pretty tough rivals in her recent turf starts. She was no match for the impressive Utilization Rate two back, but was finishing well, nearly catching Thursday’s rival Doral at the wire. Then last time she was used early, pressing a very fast pace – all TimeformUS Pace Figures coded in red – before taking over in upper stretch. She couldn’t hold off the closing winner Startup Mentality, but that horse appears to have stakes potential. A repeat of that last effort gives her a strong chance, and she should get the right trip stalking her stablemate this time.