Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Lordship set for better with addition of blinkers
Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 5:10 p.m. (ET)
Stars and Stripes (#3) looms as a heavy favorite in this first-level allowance around one full lap of the Saratoga oval. He won going this 9-furlong distance when he broke his maiden by over 10 lengths in his prior start at Aqueduct, drawing away from an overmatched field with authority. This horse had hinted at possessing serious talent when he outran his 31-1 odds to be third in a fast maiden race on debut, and he confirmed that promise last time. He likely won't have to improve much on his 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field, and his tactical speed should ensure he works out a good trip. He's the horse to beat, but he doesn’t project to offer much value stepping up in class as a prohibitive favorite.
Some may consider Rocketeer (#2) as a threat to lead this field from gate to wire, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector does depict him on a clear early lead in a scenario favoring the frontrunner. He's just hard to trust in his current form, since he hasn't put forth a competitive effort since this meet last year. Tracking Error (#5) hasn't gotten ideal trips in his recent starts and did win going this distance when he broke his maiden in February. However, he got loose up front through some very slow fractions that day, and also took advantage of a track that was kind to inside runners.
My top pick is the other Chad Brown entrant, Lordship (#7), who picks up Flavien Prat for his first start on this circuit. He looked like a work in progress when he made his debut at Tampa Bay Downs in March, but he got the job done anyway despite racing a bit greenly. Chad Brown subsequently cross-entered him in the Grade 3 Peter Pan and the Long Branch on the same weekend, and chose the latter spot because it was a bit softer. Yet the fact that he placed him so aggressively off one start was a sign of confidence. The horse didn't run that badly at Monmouth, breaking alertly before getting taken back and picking up pieces late. He's now been freshened and returns with blinkers. According to the DRF Formulator, Chad Brown is 25 for 72 (35%, $2.67 ROI) with horses adding blinkers in dirt routes over 5 years, and within that sample is 8 for 19 (42%, $3.13 ROI) at distances of 9 furlongs and beyond. This horse is training well with blinkers and looks set for a step forward.