Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Logic N Reason can exploit pace advantage

Belmont | Race 9 | Post Time 5:14 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

Capital Structure (#4) is a British-bred daughter of Lope de Vega who sold for $274,000 at the 2018 Tattersalls sale. She had been in training at Palm Meadows during the spring but didn’t make her debut until July at Monmouth when she surprised a solid maiden field to win at odds of 6-1. She was much the best that day, as she overcame an awkward start by making a mid-race move to challenge for the lead before drawing off in the stretch. This filly clearly possesses talent, but it remains to be seen if she can handle this step up in class. Horses have not returned out of that race to perform particularly well in subsequent starts, so she certainly has some questions to answer. I’m using her, but I didn’t want to accept a very short price on her.

Her main rival is the returning Crystalle (#3), winner of last year’s P.G. Johnson at Saratoga. While she would clearly be a player in this race if able to take a natural step forward off her 2-year-old form, her running style could be a hindrance. She’s a deep closer who typically breaks slowly from the gate, and that figures to be a problem in a race that lacks pace.

I prefer LOGIC N REASON (#5), who could play out as the early leader by default. This filly disappointed in her return from a layoff in June, but she ran much better last time at Saratoga. The pace of that July 26 affair was fast, and Logic N Reason was part of a four-horse vanguard leading the field down the backstretch. She finished well ahead of the other horses involved in the pace but was ultimately passed in a race dominated by closers. The 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned for that performance is the highest in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leader.

THE PLAY

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,6