Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Lobby Rendezvous due for better trip

Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:35 p.m. (ET)

The horses who figure to attract most of the support in this 9-furlong maiden event are those exiting the second race on June 6 of Belmont Stakes week. Endorse (#2) was the beaten 4-5 favorite in that spot. She displayed good early speed and took over at the quarter pole like she was on her way to victory. Yet she hit a wall in the stretch, fading to third behind impressive winner Ragtime. Her early speed should be especially dangerous from an inside post going 1 1/8 miles on this main track, but I'm a little concerned about added distance for her. Even though she's by Curlin, her female family leans more towards sprints.

Two fillies who finished well behind Endorse in that June 6 race merit serious consideration. Resurge (#6) took some money to be 6-1 in her debut, but ran like a horse who badly needed the experience. She was off slowly and then rushed up on the backstretch before encountering traffic on the turn. She rallied mildly in upper stretch, but then lost momentum between horses late. She's bred to go longer as a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winning router Close Hatches, making her a half-sister to top dirt horses like Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down. The only negative is that Bill Mott has poor statistics stretching out maidens like this.

Chad Brown has excellent stats with that same move, going 31 for 93 (33%, $2.00 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over the last 5 years. Lost Horizon (#5) didn't encounter as much adversity as Resurge in that debut race, but she was staying on well at the end. She's another one who is bred to stretch out, out of Breeders' Cup Distaff runner-up Wow Cat, and she physically looks like a filly who should relish added ground.

My top pick is the more experienced Lobby Rendezvous (#1). This filly ran slower speed figures over the winter at Oaklawn, but she did not get ideal trips in either race there, going wide on the turns each time. She was given some time off, and returned last time at Churchill, adding blinkers and Lasix. She ran a vastly improved race despite getting a terrible trip. She broke a step slowly, then got rank with the blinkers, pulling her rider forward into a premature move. Most horses would quit after that, but she stayed on admirably to finish second with a competitive 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I believe she has further upside second off the layoff, and she now draws well while getting a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz.