Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Light Man should be set for better second off the layoff
Saratoga | Race 9 | Post Time 5:44 p.m. (ET)
This John Morrissey drew a surprisingly large field of 13 runners, but the two likely favorites clearly have the best credentials. Whatchatalkinabout (#9) is a Grade 3 winner dropping in class into this New York-bred stakes, and Bank Frenzy (#2) has won 5 of his last 6, including several statebred stakes events over the course of his career. I prefer the Wesley Ward runner, who will be awfully tough for this field to handle if repeating the 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that 8-length allowance victory two back. He didn't run quite as fast when narrowly edging clear to win the John Nerud last time, and he does have to prove that he can stretch his speed over this 7-furlong distance. Bank Frenzy will also be attempting to conquer this distance for the first time, having achieved most of his stakes success going a mile.
I see a couple of intriguing alternatives to consider, both drawn toward the outside of the starting gate. One of those is Doc Sullivan (#12), who has been beaten by a few of these rivals recently. However, he is returning from a brief freshening, and switching into the barn of John Ortiz. The new conditioner doesn't have great statistics off trainer switches, but he has had success at Saratoga in recent seasons. Doc Sullivan can be a tricky horse to ride, often struggling with his lead changes or trying to lug in, so I'll be interested to see if Joel Rosario can work out a better trip from this outside draw.
My top pick is Light Man (#13), drawn in the widest slot. Yet he does have very good tactical speed, and this outside post should give Kendrick Carmouche plenty of options for the long run down the backstretch. This gelding spent a long time on the sidelines early in his career, but he steadily improved over the course of last season. He's remarkably consistent, finishing off the board only once in his career last November. He was too aggressively ridden that day, fading after dueling in a fast pace. He rebounded in his return last time, chasing home the inconsistent but occasionally brilliant Baby Yoda. His last two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 117 aren't that far off the favorites, and I can project some improvement in his second start off a layoff. He figures to be a fair price in a race with so many options.