Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Kahala should get better pace setup
Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:10 p.m. (ET)
Smile Mon (#8) figures to go favored as he seeks his third victory in a row. This horse has always had talent, but he went badly off form earlier this year, and initially looked like a disappointing claim for $50k by Rob Atras in the spring. His first few starts for the new barn were poor, but he has really turned things around since dropping in class. He regained some confidence in that $16k claimer for non-winners of two lifetime in September, just dominating an overmatched group on the front end. He then faced a more competitive pace scenario last time, but drew off with authority. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the horse to beat, but now he has to produce that form against a much tougher field with more speed signed on. He’s drawn well outside, but Night Effect (#1) and For Some Reason (#4) both seem committed to going forward as they stretch out in distance. I’m just not sure that Smile Mon has the fortitude to overcome real pressure and hold off some more accomplished late-runners.
The obvious alternative to this favorite is Winnin’onweekends (#7), who drops slightly in class after facing allowance/optional-claiming foes last time. The distance may have been a little far for him, which helps to explain why he hung in the late stages. Yet he still ran well coming to this circuit after having been relatively consistent at Parx over the summer. I don’t mind him cutting back to one turn, and view him as a contender.
The same goes for Skylander (#2), who has been pretty consistent despite changing barns a few times since early summer. He found $40k claimers to be slightly too tough two back, fading after making a menacing move at the quarter pole. He got back on track last time, producing a stronger finish after being reserved early. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow, who is capable with this move.
My top pick is a horse who actually exits the same race. Kahala (#5) finished six lengths behind Skylander, but the pace scenario didn’t suit him at all. They crawled up front, depicted by all blue TimeformUS Pace Figures, giving him little chance to make up ground. He actually had a chance to show more speed after breaking alertly, but Joel Rosario seemed intent on dragging him off the pace. It didn’t work out, but he still ran on with good interest through the lane. Now he lands in a spot that is supposed to feature a contested pace scenario. He’s been steadily improving since the claim by Chris Englehart, and seems primed for a career-best effort under these circumstances.