Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Intellect may hold winning hand in Poker

Saratoga | Race 9 | Post Time 5:12 p.m. (ET)

If this race had been taking place a few months ago, Major Dude (#4) would be considered a solid favorite. However, a couple of disappointing recent results at short prices leave some doubts about his current form coming into this Grade 3 Poker. He had a valid excuse in the Appleton two back, but he got a much better trip last time in the Opening Verse at Churchill and just lacked a late kick when produced in the lane. He's not for me. Among the expected short prices, I much prefer Cameo Performance (#1). This colt had shown some hints of talent during his 3-year-old season before going to the sidelines in late summer. He finally seemed to put it all together when he returned from a layoff in the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds this year. Some may view his eighth-place result in the Grade 1 Turf Classic next time as a step backwards, but he actually ran an underrated race considering his trip. He launched a four-wide move on the far turn before understandably flattening out late. He now draws the rail and should work out a better journey.

There doesn't appear to be much pace in here, so that naturally makes the veteran Filo Di Arianna (#3) dangerous, though Donegal Momentum (#8) should be breathing down his neck early, and I prefer the upside of that 4-year-old contender. He settled for second in allowance company last time, but he clearly ran the best race, dueling with the classy Big Everest on the front end, which left him vulnerable to a late challenge. He won't need to improve much on that last performance to factor here.

My top pick is Intellect (#2), who makes his second start in this country. This French-bred was just coming to hand overseas last spring before going to the sidelines. Yet he couldn’t have competed in the French classics anyway, since geldings are excluded from those races. He debuted in the U.S. for Chad Brown in a Keeneland allowance last time and ran pretty well considering his trip. He never saw the rail, and was forced to go four-wide on the far turn when attempting to rally. He had shown better tactical speed in his French races, even leading throughout two back. According to the DRF Formulator, Chad Brown has excellent statistics with these types, going 7 for 31 (23%, $3.80 ROI) second off layoffs of 240 to 480 days in turf-route graded stakes over 5 years. I expect Flavien Prat to secure a spot just off those two speeds sitting in the pocket, and that should be the perfect setup for this runner to play his hand in the lane.