Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Freshened up Fromanothamutha gets needed class relief
Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:38 p.m. (ET)
Natural Harbor (#1) has a lot going for him in this $32k claimer, one of the few interesting races on a thin Thursday card. He settled for second at this level two back, but he was setting an honest pace in that spot and still earned a career-best 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He regressed slightly last time when stepped up against a tough starter-allowance field. No one was beating dominant winner Giroovin, who came right back to make it two in a row at that level. Natural Harbor failed to make the early lead in that spot, and he’s clearly better when he can control the pace up front. Now he’s landing in a race in which the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts he’ll be clear of the field in a “Favors Frontrunners” scenario. In the past I would have been concerned about the rail draw for this horse, but he’s been much sharper away from the gate for the Brad Cox barn.
Commerce Comet (#5) has actually finished ahead of Natural Harbor in both of their recent encounters. That includes his victory at this level on Nov. 15, in which he rated mid-pack before reeling in his nemesis in the last furlong. Commerce Comet disappointed in his next outing, but he was compromised by racing wide against a strong rail bias on Dec. 27. He rebounded with a solid runner-up effort behind Giroovin, again beating Natural Harbor. I respect his current form, but I surmise his main rival will have a tactical advantage this time.
I’m taking a shot against this pair with Fromanothamutha (#4), who figures to be a more enticing price. The gelding possesses prior form that makes him highly competitive against a field like this, though most of those races came for former trainer Ray Handal. Since getting claimed by Gustavo Rodriguez, his form has steadily declined. However, he may have been overmatched in some tougher first-level allowance races last summer and fall. He now drops into a much more realistic spot and the last time he competed for a similar claiming tag, $40k in June, he was a winner. I also think it’s worth noting that the Rodriguez barn has really come alive since this horse’s last race. Over the past four months, Rodriguez has compiled a record of 37-7-10-1 ($2.19 ROI), finishing in the exacta with nearly half his starters. Fromanothamutha now picks up one of the top riders on the circuit, and possesses the tactical speed to get a good stalking trip.