Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Forgiving Spirit can rebound back in Linda Rice's barn
Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 3:40 p.m. (ET)
Master of Arms (#9) will obviously beat this field if he runs back to his efforts from this spring. Yet there has to be serious concern about his ability to recapture that prior given the dramatic drop in class as he returns from a layoff. This horse was claimed for $50k by these connections in February, and now drops in for $16k despite running competitively against first-level allowance competition in the interim. He earned a few TimeformUS Speed Figures that tower over this field, but it would seem unreasonable to expect him to reproduce those numbers here. He figures to be a short price based on the overall body of work, but I could never bet a horse with this profile.
There are a few alternatives to consider. Manta Rey (#4) was running some races that would give him a chance here when he was sprinting this past winter at Oaklawn. However, he didn't have much early speed, and that speed was likely further dulled by routing in recent starts. He's intriguing turning back, but I worry that there won't be enough pace for him.
The speed is likely to come from Gatsby (#2), who has to get an aggressive ride from his inside post position. He's another runner who dropped in class earlier this year, but at least he's run a competitive race recently. He put in a very game effort for Rob Atras last time, and now makes his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who does well with these types.
My top pick is Forgiving Spirit (#3), who goes first off the claim for Linda Rice. She interestingly claimed him back for $20k after losing him for $12,500 two starts back at Saratoga. He did win that lone start for her barn, earning a solid 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was his first ever victory on dirt, but he had run better than it appears in some prior dirt starts since dropping in class earlier this season. He did regress for the Rudy Rodriguez barn last time, but he didn't get the most comfortable trip, trying to rally behind a wall of horses before galloping out as if he had more to give. He fits at this level, and Rice does very well with her lower-level claims.