Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Fooch exits a deceptively strong race

Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:18 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Switzerland (#1) and Tommy T (#4) are likely to go off as the two favorites once again, but I'm starting to get a little tired of this pair. They keep running well and deserve to be used, but they've both had their fair share of chances at short prices. At a better price, I prefer Stan the Man (#6), who finished ahead of those two last time, and could find himself in a situation where he’s able to pick up the pieces once again. I think he’s one to use underneath, but I want to look in a different direction for my top pick.

The horse who interests me most is FOOCH (#5).

This horse returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Wesley Ward. I know that he looks too slow to compete against this group at first glance. However, his debut effort was actually much stronger than it appears. The five horses who ran back out of that race improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by an average of 36 points in their next start and their Beyer Speed Figures by an average of 24 points. Most notably, runner-up Copper Town blossomed into one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country in his two subsequent starts. Furthermore, Ward has strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 21 for 50 (42 percent, $2.53 ROI) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or longer in sprints.

THE PLAY

Win: 5
Exacta key box: 5 with 1, 3, 4, 6
Trifecta: 5 with 1, 4, 6 with 1, 3, 4, 6