Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: D’ont Lose Cruz capable of better in return
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET)
Radio Red (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat off that strong performance at the level last time. It was good to see him bounce back following a poor effort two back, though it’s easy to excuse his performances over wet tracks, since he’s clearly better on fast going. That last effort has already been flattered by runbacks, as 5th-place finisher Thrill of It came back to win, improving by 9 TimeformUS points, and 8th-place Mason Mania won his next start, improving by 13 points. Radio Red has never won going this 7-furlong distance but has run well each time, and his stalking style should ensure he works out a good trip.
If each of these horses runs his best performance, Amundson (#5) would likely find himself in the winner’s circle. It’s just hard to know exactly what to expect given his overall inconsistency this year. He did defeat main rival Radio Red convincingly the last time he was dropped down to this level going 7 furlongs at Saratoga in August. He got to control the pace up front that day, and his early speed should play well in this spot. While he has regressed since then, he was overmatched in the Hudson, and may not have appreciated rating tactics last time. Michelle Giangiulio doesn’t have the strongest statistics first off the claim, but he’s spotted appropriately.
After the scratch of my original top pick, I'm happy to upgrade D’ont Lose Cruz (#8), who tries to restart his career following a series of layoffs. This gelding looked so promising as a 2-year-old, breaking his maiden in fast time before placing in a stakes. However, he lost his form into the early part of last year, and subsequently went to the sidelines. He only finished a neck behind today’s rival Radio Red in his return last fall before again getting put away. That performance might be a bit better than it looks, since he wasn't ridden with much intention away from the starting gate, ceding the early lead to a runner who went on to dominate up front. I like that he’s drawn outside now, and he appears to be working well for this latest return. I'm hoping Romero Maragh sends him into a forward position.