Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Consumer Spending ready to tackle tougher in Ballston Spa

Saratoga | Race 9 | Post Time 5:44 p.m. (ET)

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Chad Brown holds his typically strong hand in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, sending out the top three favorites on the morning line. Technical Analysis (#8) figures to be the shortest price among those, as she seeks her fifth career Saratoga stakes victory. Most recently she was a dominant winner of the De La Rose in early August, earning a solid 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That day she was allowed to get to the front and back down the pace before sprinting home. I’m skeptical she’ll be afforded quite the same advantage this time with main pace rival Evvie Jets (#3) getting a rider switch to the more aggressive Luis Saez. Even longshot Sister Bridget (#7) is a candidate to face the pace under Katie Davis.

If the race really falls apart, that would suit Fluffy Socks (#4), who gets the LP flag – best TimeformUS Late Pace Rating – on the Pace Projector. She just missed to the favorite in this race last year, but she comes in off a subpar effort in the Diana last month.

The wild card in this field is the European shipper Jumbly (#1). The Joseph O’Brien trainee showed promise as a younger horse, getting a shot in the Group 1 French 1000 Guineas during her 3-year-old season before winning a Group 3 later in the year. She’s come back with two starts as a 4-year-old, and ran pretty well both times against Group 2 competition. She appears to have the tactical speed and turn of foot to take well to American racing, and she’s drawn perfectly inside.

My top pick is the Brown runner who appears to be on the rise. Consumer Spending (#2) was always a nice horse, winning stakes during her juvenile and sophomore campaigns, but she was always a cut below the best in her division. Since returning as a 4-year-old, she probably needed her first start off the layoff in the Beaugay, but since then has reeled off two consecutive stakes victories at Monmouth. The TimeformUS Speed Figures of 122 and 123 for those efforts match up well against the favorite. I’ve really been impressed with her ability to close into slow or moderate paces, and now she figures to get a better setup. This filly looks ready to move up in the ranks of the female turf division, and she probably won’t be favored here.