Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Champagne Juan brings upside into Belmont Gold Cup
Saratoga | Race 10 | Post Time 5:50 p.m. (ET)
Siskany (#12) delivered as the 4-5 favorite in last year’s Belmont Gold Cup, and he figures to be a similar price again as he seeks a repeat victory. However, he benefited from a perfect trip from post position 2 when he won this race last summer, and he was done no favors at the draw this time, getting mired in the far outside slot. That could be a real disadvantage in a race that will be contested around four turns at Saratoga this year. He still might be too classy for this group. He appeared to get back into top form this winter in Dubai, winning a pair of marathon stakes before finishing a respectable fourth against a salty group in the Dubai Gold Cup. A repeat of that performance will put him in the winner’s circle here. However, he hasn’t always been at his best over yielding or soft ground, and there’s a rainy forecast for Thursday. These connections tend to pull in a ton of support, and I suspect he may be an underlay.
Main rival The Grey Wizard (#11) will try to turn the tables on the favorite after finishing second to Siskany last season. He had the tougher journey that day, going wide all the way from post 13 and staying on gamely to only get beaten by a couple of lengths. His form left him thereafter, but he took a step back in the right direction last time, closing well in the Louisville at Churchill, which was dominated by a front-running winner. He’s unproven over truly wet ground, but I’m viewing him as a top contender nonetheless.
I prefer an alternative that appears to have a little more upside. Champagne Juan (#6) obviously has quite a bit to prove from a class standpoint, as he makes his stakes debut while stretching all the way out to two miles. However, this son of Justify has been improving as the distances get longer. He hit his best stride too late in his first attempt going 1 1/2 miles at Gulfstream, where he was compromised by a slow pace. The most recent Keeneland race brought out more of his stamina, as he sliced between horses in midstretch to win going away. He only got a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, but the form was flattered when third-place finisher Truly Quality returned to win a turf race by six lengths with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This is a big step up in class, but he still has significant upside and should be suited by this longer trip.