Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Caldo Candy can bounce back with better start

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 2:40 p.m. (ET)

I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Whatchatalkinabout (No. 7), who is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his third attempt to break through this second level state-bred allowance condition. He’s achieved strong speed figures in each of his last two starts but has nevertheless settled for second each time. He was defeated by a pretty talented rival in Vettriano when he lost off the yearlong layoff two back, but he was supposed to hold on for victory last time when run down as the even-money choice. He's drawn well in the outside post for the third start in a row, and his tactical speed should ensure he gets a good trip again. There just has to be some concern that this lightly raced 4-year-old will continue to hold his form now that he’s putting three starts together without a layoff, something he’s never done before.

His primary wagering rival figures to be Yo Banana Boy (No. 1), who looks like the main speed from his inside post position. This gelding was an impressive winner of his first level allowance condition two back, earning a career-best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While he faded to finish fourth behind Whatchatalkinabout in his next start, he actually ran quite well considering the fast and contested early pace. He battled gamely until mid-stretch, at which point he just got tired in a race that was ultimately won by a closer. There doesn’t appear to be as much pace signed on this time, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Yo Banana Boy will be on a clear lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner.

The only horse that looks quick enough to provide a serious challenge to that rival in the early stages is my top pick, Caldo Candy (No. 6). This gelding has finished off the board in both starts at this level, but he's had legitimate excuses each time. He had no chance two back at Saratoga when chasing wide against the strongest rail bias of the entire meet, and he didn’t even perform that badly to stay on for fifth. He missed some time after that and returned from the layoff in that Nov. 30 race, where he finished far behind the two aforementioned rivals. However, Caldo Candy basically lost all chance at the start when he broke a step slowly and was bumped between rivals before getting cut off. He’s clearly better than that, having achieved a field-best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure three back at Saratoga. He’s drawn well here and should perform better second off the layoff, provided that he gets a clean start.