Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Bustin Shout cuts back to best distance
Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:18 p.m. (ET)
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I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches this wide-open statebred $25k claimer. The race lacks an obvious favorite, but I would imagine that some handicappers will be enticed by the early speed of Tommy Gun (#3). This gelding has been in strong form, finishing in the exacta in each of his last four starts. He’s moving up in class after winning his $14k beaten claimer condition last time, but that was an unusually strong field for the level and he won decisively. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be leading in a situation favoring the front-runner. The one knock is that he’s first off the claim for Lolita Shivmangal and exiting the barn of Mike Maker. Yet she tends to do fine with her limited opportunities, and she’s wisely running the horse back on short rest.
The main pace rival for Tommy Gun figures to be Quickflash (#7), who also changes barns. Mark Hennig is 4 for 13 (31%, $3.82 ROI) first off a claim for Windylea Farm. He also moves this runner up in class despite coming off a fading fourth-place finish. Quickflash is a little harder to endorse on the win end, given his 11 runner-up finishes to go along with his three victories in 39 career starts. Yet he had been in good form coming into the fall, and he projects to get the right kind of trip in this spot.
I wanted to avoid some others who could take money, such as Six Percent (#2), who has a lot to prove as he cuts all the way back to six furlongs after concentrating on routes for much of his career. I’m also skeptical of Always Charming (#4), who suddenly found vastly improved form this spring but has tailed off since. It appeared his early speed had completely left him last time, and I don’t trust him to wake up even with this class drop.
I wanted to go in a different direction for my top pick. Bustin Shout (#1) might appear as if he’s also off form, but his last couple of efforts aren’t nearly as bad as they seem. He didn’t get the right ride or trip two back, when he broke sharply and was then reined in by the apprentice, getting shuffled back and losing position down the backstretch. Then last time he tried a mile and was rated again. He actually tried to make a move in upper stretch, but just can’t get that distance. I like him turning back, and he’s getting appropriate class relief as he makes his third start since the Rudy Rodriguez claim. I’m hoping to see Luis Rivera deliver a more aggressive ride here, at least getting forward position even if he doesn’t make the lead. I made him the tentative favorite on the morning line, and I think that price is fair.