Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: A Bourbon for Toby needs ground-saving trip
Saratoga | Race 2 | Post Time 1:44 p.m. (ET)
This maiden special weight going 1 3/16 miles on turf features a pretty well-matched field outside of the longshot drawn on the rail. Noble Confessor (#6) could go favored as he drops back into the maiden ranks after facing stakes company in three of his last four starts. He was unlucky to lose the Grade 2 Pilgrim when he first got on turf last fall, and he was hardly disgraced when beaten just over two lengths in the Breeders' Cup. He dropped back in against maidens off the layoff in May and settled for second behind a highly-regarded Chad Brown rival. Yet he failed to really step forward on his two-year-old form, and we didn't learn much more about him last time in the off-the-turf Pennine Ridge. He's a major player, but I worry that he could get overbet with Irad regaining the mount.
Vintage Vino (#7) has had to settle for minor awards in his last few turf attempts, including when he returned from a layoff earlier this month. He ran pretty well in that comeback, being used far more aggressively than in prior races to press the pace. He faded a bit late, but should have gotten some needed conditioning from that effort. Stretching out to this distance should also suit a horse who showed plenty of stamina in his races last season.
A few other contenders are exiting the June 20 race at Aqueduct. Royal's Pride (#3) achieved the best result of those who finished behind Mayor of Midnight that day, but he also got the best trip. He saved ground on the turns, and didn't tip out until he got into the straightaway.
The horse I want from that spot is A Bourbon for Toby (#4). This colt has only been on turf three times, but he's run better than the results suggest in each of those races. He hasn't seen the rail in either of his last couple of starts. He was two-wide early before making the first move while going three-wide run around the far turn. Then last time in the aforementioned June 20 event, he was a bit too keen early, and then launched another three-wide run, pushed out into the four-path at the quarter pole. He's been a little unlucky, but he should have a chance to save some more ground with Flavien Prat getting aboard. I believe he'll beat this field if given the right trip.