Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Be of Courage returns to appropriate class level
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:14 p.m. (ET)
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I’m not trying to beat Be of Courage (#7), who is just getting logical class relief as he moves back into New York-bred company. He’s been stuck at this N1X allowance level for quite some time, but his performances have gradually been improving over the past several months. He just missed when closing into a moderate pace at Saratoga on Aug. 27. He was then unlucky in his most recent start at this level on Sep. 17, encountering traffic while trying to rally up the rail in a race dominated by the leaders. The connections then got too ambitious trying a pair of tougher open company races. He actually outran his odds both times, putting in an especially encouraging effort last time, just missing second behind the stakes-quality Redistricting. A repeat of that 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure will make him awfully tough for this field to beat. He also might be a bigger price than his form merits, due to the lower profile connections.
One of his main rivals is Lord Flintshire (#10), but he’s tough to trust as a win candidate, having finished second on 8 occasions, including in 3 of his last 4 starts. He just seems to have trouble finding the winner’s circle despite maintaining solid form. Furthermore, he got very good trips in each of his last two starts, and now he’s drawn outside.
Shinsun (#4) is another who has settled for minor awards recently, but at least he has a little more upside as a lightly raced sort. He was closing just ahead of Be of Courage when they met at this level on Sep. 17, and finished well to get up for third in a race that didn’t’ feature much pace. His lack of early speed just often leaves him with too much to do, so he’s dependent on them going quickly up front.
Lt. Mitchell (#1) is the one new face at this level that I would consider. He beat a weaker field of maidens last time at Saratoga, but he had shown more ability in prior starts. He possesses dangerous tactical speed from the rail, and Linda Rice has a knack for keeping horses like this in good form once they start having success.