Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Added distance bringing out the best in Justdeny

Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:18 p.m. (ET)

I want to take a shot against likely favorite Idea Generation (No. 7) as she returns from a layoff. I wasn’t really thrilled with any of this filly’s races from last season until she outran her odds to hold on for second in the four-horse Waya at the end of the year. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure obviously makes her competitive here, but that’s a quintessential example of a horse getting dragged along to a fast number by a superior winner. Idea Generation was allowed to set a moderate pace over a yielding course, which naturally favors front-runners. I’m not convinced that she really has much of an edge on this field, and she’s going to be a short price with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.

High Stick (No. 8) is a little more appealing as she stretches out to a marathon for the first time. The distance shouldn’t be an issue since she won her maiden going 10 furlongs at Belmont last year. Her 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure last time at Monmouth is clearly the best number in this field outside of the favorite. She has the speed to get to the front against this field.



My top pick is Justdeny (No. 5), who just won her maiden going this distance. Some may be turned off by her lackluster speed figures, but I thought she took a step forward in victory last time. She didn’t have great position early in that race, going three to four wide without cover around the first turn before tucking in past the wire the first time. She then swung wide again on the far turn to make her winning bid and found another gear when switching back to her left lead late. She strikes me as one that wants every bit of this distance and might be a 3-year-old who is just coming into her own.