Three Rules no cinch to win Carry Back Stakes
Three Rules was the king of Gulfstream Park last summer and fall, crushing open-company and restricted stakes foes alike on his way to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in California.
But after winning his first five starts, Three Rules has lost five in a row, and though the Grade 3, $150,000 Carry Back Stakes looks like the best spot Three Rules has found in a long time, placing blind trust in the favorite Saturday at Gulfstream Park seems imprudent.
Three Rules is one of 11 3-year-olds entered in the seven-furlong Carry Back, race 11 on the Summit of Speed card. Three Rules drew post 3 and will have Cornelio Velasquez in the irons for the first time since the Swale Stakes in February.
If Three Rules runs to his Swale, in which he finished a strong second to the talented one-turn colt Favorable Outcome, he’ll win the Carry Back. But after a busy winter campaign and a third-place finish in the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico, where he ran below his best form, Three Rules feels like less than a lock.
“He’s doing real well,” said trainer Jose Pinchin. “I worked him just easy this past Saturday after turning in a couple fast ones the previous two weekends.”
Three Rules has worked three times at Gulfstream since the May 20 Chick Lang. Things went somewhat against him that day. Three Rules broke from the rail over a drying-out track rated “good,” was steadied slightly into the turn, and was short of room while trapped on the inside for much of the race’s six furlongs, a distance shorter than he prefers. Three Rules came under a drive a quarter-mile out and failed to make headway, and Pinchin, even after a five-week respite, is talking about resting his horse.
“We might give him a little break after this race to freshen him up for the fall,” he said.
Three Rules should pull a favorable trip just behind a solid, contested pace. Drawn just outside him, with Robby Albarado named, is one of his chief rivals, Mo Cash, who has a similar running style and from post 4 can shadow Three Rules’s every move.
Mo Cash’s connections snuck the horse into a $35,000 maiden claimer first out and came away with a handy nine-length win, and after two more victories, Mo Cash also ran well in his first defeat, a second-place finish to older rival and Smile Sprint starter Quijote in the Big Drama Stakes at Gulfstream. Mo Cash had to sit and suffer while stuck on the rail around the turn as Quijote pressed a slow pace, and he should have a better setup Saturday.
Sweetontheladies has won four of his six starts, and he got a dream setup in scoring his richest victory in a restricted stakes last November. Classic Rock is better than his 33-length loss June 10 in the Woody Stephens Stakes at Belmont but must prove he can beat equally talented horses with less than a perfect trip.
R Angel Katelyn in Azalea
R Angel Katelyn has been favored in five of her nine starts but could offer a hint of value while facing nine rivals Saturday in the $75,000 Azalea Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs.
R Angel Katelyn’s price could drift higher than it should if the filly Firefoot takes unmerited betting. Firefoot is trained by Todd Pletcher and won her lone start June 3 by three lengths, earning a field-best 83 Beyer Speed Figure. But Firefoot raced over a sloppy track against five maidens and found her way to a clear outside run, and while she’s favorably drawn in the Azalea, win odds in the 3-1 range would not be fair.
R Angel Katelyn, meanwhile, has captured four stakes races, won at four venues, handled fast and sloppy tracks, and excels at seven furlongs. She clearly is the most likely Azalea winner. Edgard Zayas rides for trainer Gerald Bennett.
Sweet Tooth Haven also should attract support, but she starts Saturday for the first time outside Florida-bred or -sired company.
Pay Any Price must be caught
The $75,000 Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint looks straightforward: Pay Any Price will wing along on the lead, and Partly Mocha will try to catch him.
Those are clearly the two principals in the five-furlong dash, which drew nine horses entered for turf and is carded as race 5.
Pay Any Price was claimed for $25,000 last July, turned over to trainer Ralph Ziadie, and has since caught fire. He has won 3 of his last 5 while showing brilliant speed and running fast Beyers and was just nipped in the $100,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint on May 19 at Pimlico by Richard’s Boy, who was coming off a strong showing in the $1 million Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai.
Partly Mocha is a formidable five-furlong horse in his own right, and his only recent subpar performance came over a soggy course two starts ago at Churchill.
◗ Diamond Oops, an eye-catching debut winner June 1, looks like the right horse in the $100,000 Kiss a Native, a 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint for 2-year-olds. Diamond Oops overcame a slow start to post a fast debut win for trainer Patrick Biancone.
The $100,000 Brave Raj for 2-year-old fillies seems murkier, with four of the six entrants being once-started debut winners.
– additional reporting by Mike Welsch
