Three-day $175,909 carryover complements hittable pick six at Aqueduct

The Aqueduct pick six will have gone unhit for just less than a week when the horses line up for the third race Thursday. Last Thursday, the pick six paid $122,514 on a card that began with a carryover of $22,799.

On the three ensuing race programs, the most winners anyone could correctly tab were five. Friday generated a carryover of $14,836, which grew to $48,374 on Saturday and leapt to $175,909 on Sunday.

The Thursday card includes only a single claiming race. The program has three allowance or optional claimers, two maiden races, two starters, and concludes with a restricted $25,000 claimer. It will be surprising if the pick six is not hit, even though the sequence gets more difficult as it progresses.

Here are some thoughts on races 3 through 8, which are forecast to be run over a fast track:

Race 3: Missle Bomb (No. 3) was claimed five times from six races between June and November. He was second-best at this $50,000 starter level in his debut for John Toscano Jr. while chasing front-running Wegotoldyougotsold, who has now won three in a row.

Although Missle Bomb will be singled by some, I am also going to use Consensus Thinking (6), whom Rudy Rodriguez has gelded since his last start. He comes into the race a fresh horse with a steady work pattern.

Maryland horseman Gary Capuano makes a rare trip to New York with two horses Thursday, including Gnarly (1), who has been facing legitimate first-level allowance runners at Laurel Park. I will use him as a B selection.

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Race 4: Local Counsel (2) finally broke through with a 9 1/2-length maiden win last time out for Mark Hennig and is the horse to beat in this first-level New York-bred allowance. New York Hero (8) has won back-to-back open Finger Lakes allowance races for Jeremiah Englehart, should be feeling pretty good about himself, and turns back to a single bend.

Race 5: Moretti (7), a $900,000 yearling buy who is trained by Todd Pletcher, didn’t have the smoothest debut journey in an off-the-turf race going a mile Nov. 14 at Aqueduct.

He moved up to a contending position along the inside on the backstretch, then dropped back a few lengths nearing the turn and lost position. He came on again in the stretch to be second-best while appearing to find his best stride late.

Moretti should enjoy the 1 1/8 miles of this race and is better drawn outside. John Velazquez, who hasn’t ridden here since Dec. 1, is named to ride.

In an attempt to keep the cost of this ticket down, I’ll single Moretti even though I’d recommend using the Kelly Breen-trained Erlich (4) if your budget allows.

Race 6: This $50,000 starter race for fillies and mares is not easy. I will use Smiles From Sadie (2), Mo Flash (5), and Naples Legacy (6) as A’s and Vip Nation, part of the No. 1 entry, as a B.

Smiles From Sadie was farther back than usual early when second at this level for Rodriguez last time out. Mo Flash steps up in class again after two wins for Aqueduct-based Edward Barker, whose stable is currently doing very well.

Naples Legacy comes into this off a fourth-place finish in a salty running of the $100,000 Safely Kept Stakes at Laurel for Mike Maker. The runner-up in that race, Estilo Femenino, will be favored to win a second-level optional claimer in race 1 on Thursday’s Aqueduct card.

Vip Nation was run down from behind by Smiles From Sadie in her last start and beaten a neck for second while improving off a claim by Michael Tannuzzo.

Race 7: Pick an Englehart, any Englehart.

Father Chris has Lion Sleeps (6). Sons Jeremiah and Jeffrey have Dynamax Prime (5) and Playthatfunnymusic (3). All three come into this first-level statebred allowance off solid races at Finger Lakes.

The Engleharts all have to beat Phone Funky Munky (7), who is trained by David Donk. He was second-best at this level behind runaway 4-5 winner Singapore Trader last time out while making only the second dirt start of his 11-race career.

I’ll use all four horses, but Playthatfunnymusic will be a B runner only.

Race 8: The class-droppers Leap to Glory (2) and Proximate to Power (3) figure in the claiming finale.

Charlton Baker has given Leap to Glory three chances in New York-bred allowance races, but he has shown speed and weakened in all of them. He has been freshened for close to two months with five works and should improve markedly.

Proximate to Power (3) was claimed for $32,000 by Brad Cox five weeks ago, doesn’t show a workout, and drops a notch.

If I were to go deeper, I would use D’Ambrosio (4) and Curlin Creek (10), who both return on short rest.