Thinking that Philosophy is beatable

It’s unclear how much thought went into Philosophy’s second-start maiden win last month at Fair Grounds, but the ratio of mind to body involved didn’t much matter. Philosophy scored a 5 3/4-length turf-sprint maiden win, a showing flashy enough to make him the likely favorite in the fourth race Friday at Fair Grounds.

Race 4 is one of three first-level turf allowance races on the card (races 6 and 8 are the others), but this is the silly season for 3-year-olds – even turf sprinters – so let’s permit the younger set to take precedence.

The logic of handicapping, the more one ponders the subject, requires burrowing beneath the superficial, and it could prove prudent to cast a cold eye on Philosophy’s win. Yes, he was much the best while facing 10 foes, and the Fair Grounds division of trainer Mark Casse’s massive stable – run ever so ably by assistant trainer David Carroll – has been humming all meet long.

But Philosophy took a major leap forward from his career debut at Keeneland and did so with some benefit from a front-running journey that didn’t require an especially swift pace. The closest horse to Philosophy in that Dec. 6 start is named Vogt, and while his return race came on dirt, he was soundly defeated in it.

What are fair odds on Philosophy? The morning line of 7-2 feels generous – too much so, in fact. With the strong recent score, an appealing pedigree (Philosophy has four graded-stakes-winning siblings), and Casse’s name imprinted on his past performances, this seems something more like a 2-1 shot.

The 3-1 morning-line favorite is Assemblyman, a Godolphin homebred trained by Mike Stidham. Assemblyman is fine. He exits a fifth in the Sugar Bowl Stakes on dirt and two races ago was second, beaten less than one length, in a Fair Grounds turf sprint at this class level. His lone win, it must be noted, came against just five foes at humble Penn National. Four starts into his career, his immediate upside seems capped somewhere around his recent performance level.

Corruze merits consideration. Last out, he was a soundly beaten sixth in the Churchill slop, but his career debut and only other start came on Keeneland turf. That race he won by four lengths; a distant third was a colt named Philosophy. Corruze could offer value, but Keeneland’s turf course, particularly in the autumn, is very hit-and-miss. The horses who take to it often hold an edge because they like the going, not because of inherent superiority.

Or, discard all three shorter prices. The horse on the rail, Pickett, could provide some bang for the buck. He’s a Louisiana-bred with no turf experience, but Pickett’s dam, Street Beat, produced grass-stakes winner Hisse. Street Beat is by Dixie Brass, who for many years in New York has been a strong turf influence as a broodmare sire.

Pickett won the $75,000 Shine Young Futurity, a short sprint, by nine lengths in July, then tried two turns at Delta Downs and caught a sloppy track in the $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile. He might make the lead Friday and not realize he’s supposed to stop.

Or, maybe this handicapper is just overthinking things.