These 3-year-olds are right where they belong

This is the crazy season for young horses, with the start of the Triple Crown trail either already upon us or just around the next corner. Three-year-old fever makes a race like the featured sixth Friday at Fair Grounds, a first-level allowance also open to $50,000 claimers, must-see racing, but it will be surprising if this six-furlong dash throws up any real contenders for the 3-year-old route stakes in New Orleans.

That’s not to say there isn’t talent in the race, but the main contenders at this juncture appear to be one-turn horses.

After three sprints to start his career, Waging War got a shot in a two-turn first-level allowance last out at Churchill and didn’t seem to stay the trip.

Wake Up Joe, by sprinter Zensational and out of a mare by the miler Honour and Glory, has twice run 5 1/2 furlongs and once going six furlongs, and though he rates, route racing does not leap out as an obvious option.

A M Milky Way already has turned in two solid six-furlong showings this meet. He’s a Texas-bred by the obscure sire Elusive Bluff, and a stayer he does not appear to be.

Post time for the featured sixth is 3:50 p.m. Central. It could be a rainy weekend in New Orleans.

KEY CONTENDERS

Wake Up Joe (Last 3 Beyers: 84-65-73)

◗ His first two starts, which came on Arlington’s Polytrack, were decent, but his dirt debut at Churchill was better. He rallied steadily from mid-pack to finish second, beaten a nose, to Toasting Master, a fast, talented Dale Romans-trained colt.

◗ Trainer Doug Matthews is a hidden gem. The last five years he has started1,068 horses and has produced a return on investment of $1.98, a great figure for such a broad sample.

Waging War (Last 3 Beyers: 57-76-56)

◗ Start with his post position, No. 1. Obviously, a rail draw often leads to a ground-saving trip, and just as obviously, the shortest way around the oval is the best way around. But even accounting for that inherent advantage, post 1 going six furlongs has been golden the last two Fair Grounds meets, producing 67 winners from 324 starters, a 21 percent strike rate that’s 6 percentage points higher than the next-best post.

FORMULATOR FACT: Waging War’s trainer, Al Stall, is 36-6-3-9 with only a $1.13 ROI the last five years at Fair Grounds with route-to-sprint horses.

◗ Waging War’s Keeneland sprint maiden win, a three-length score over 10 foes, stamps him as a major player.

A M Milky Way (Last 3 Beyers: 78-60)

◗ He was gelded after his career debut and before his second-start maiden win.

◗ Solid second-out improvement suggests his ceiling coming back on fairly short rest is not especially high.