Tee Brown hard to trust at short price

NEW ORLEANS – The win money poured in like a sudden New Orleans downpour, and when the gate sprang for the sixth race Nov. 29 at Fair Grounds, Tee Brown was the 3-5 favorite to beat six rivals in a second-level allowance for Louisiana-breds on turf. Jockey Colby Hernandez engineered a perfect trip, stalking dueling speed horses through a quick pace, and at the top of the stretch, he swung Tee Brown out to mow down the leaders – and got nothing. Tee Brown ran one-paced through the final furlong, finishing fourth and burning the bettors.

Should handicappers expect a better result in the featured fourth race on Monday at Fair Grounds? Who knows? Trainer Al Stall, in a brief conversation about the horse this week, could come up with no obvious excuse for the loss. Tee Brown is back in at exactly the same class level, a second-level optional $20,000 claimer, and the same distance, about one mile, against three horses he faced last month.

Maybe he’ll break through this time, but there’s no doubt his win price in the recent defeat was way out of line with his level of accomplishment. Yes, Tee Brown was dropping from a pair of decent tries in Louisiana-bred stakes competition over the summer, but he had finished third last May at Evangeline Downs while trying this allowance condition for the first time, and while the horse he beat in a Louisiana-bred first-level allowance late at the last Fair Grounds meet, Eden Grey’s Kitten, has talent, he also probably is more of a sprinter, and Tee Brown took him at two turns.

The winner of the Nov. 29 race, Gate Zapper, returned Dec. 11 and upset String King in the Louisiana Champions Day Turf, but it’s hard to say what that means. Gate Zapper won a four-horse blanket finish in the allowance race, with Tee Brown part of that blanket, and the second- and third-place finishers, U R My Last Chance and Next Event, also return for Monday’s race.

Next Event did well to hold third that day after contesting a demanding pace in his first start back from a layoff, but he’s drawn wide in post 10 and could again wind up battling on the front end. U R My Last Chance has the rail and could get a good trip under Florent Geroux. Cougar Bait also stands to improve enough to be prominent at the finish, and the only clear thing about the Monday feature is this: Don’t back Tee Brown at odds-on.