Tecumseh Caroline moves back to dirt in search of maiden win

ARCADIA, Calif. – In addition to meaningful handicapping factors such as class, speed, and pace, bettors also must consider elements that are less relevant.

Random subtleties abound Friday at Santa Anita, including the turf rails at the outermost 30-foot setting for the first time at the fall meet. Will it make a difference in the course profile? Probably not, but rail setting merits token consideration in five turf races Friday.

How about a bred-for-turf maiden filly returning to dirt in race 4? Tecumseh Caroline is by top turf sire Grazen, she has run well on turf, and is a sibling to turf-synthetic gelding Johnny Podres. But the filly’s trainer believes the switch makes sense for Tecumseh Caroline. Phil D’Amato said the in-form maiden “might be a little better on the dirt.”

Likely favorite Silver Lightening should win race 6, a starter allowance for 2-year-old fillies, based on her maiden romp two back. Silver Lightening would stand out regardless of trainer. This fall at Santa Anita, the stats endorse trainer Doug O’Neill at a short price. O’Neill is 5 for 5 with favorites, looking to go 6 for 6.

More than half of Santa Anita’s autumn races have been on turf (64 turf, 49 dirt), a trend that continues Friday with the turf rails at the outermost 30-foot setting. If the course plays like Sunday when the rails were at 20 feet, it is a non-factor.

Five turf routes on Sunday produced one gate-to-wire winner, one pace-pressing winner, and three winners who rallied from the back half of the field. The turf course at Santa Anita is quick, but for the most part bias-free at every distance and every rail setting.

Race 7 on Friday is a six-furlong turf sprint for California-bred fillies and mares in which Queen Molotov will be well backed based on her third-place finish last out in a turf sprint at Del Mar. However, the seventh race at Santa Anita includes a likely longshot worth a wager.

The Great Haynes had been off seven months when she returned Aug. 28 in the same five-furlong Del Mar race as Queen Molotov. The Great Haynes did not break well and made an extended run to reach contention. But in midstretch, jockey Umberto Rispoli wrapped up and The Great Haynes retreated. She finished next to last.

Trainer Andy Mathis bought the explanation by Rispoli.

“He said it was something on the course. She kind of bobbled a little bit,” Mathis said. “He wasn’t going to win the race or hit the board and just kind of wrapped up. He wanted to be safe. He said she came back fine.”

The Great Haynes subsequently finished fourth racing five furlongs at Golden Gate, and Mathis looks forward to trying her at a longer distance Friday.

“She runs five-eighths races like another eighth of a mile should help her,” Mathis said.

Tiago Pereira rides The Great Haynes.

Race 9 on Friday, an entry-level allowance turf mile, includes D’Amato-trained Buzz of New York, runner-up last out. D’Amato also starts comebacker Annaghlasa. The trainer said Annaghlasa “should be ready to run a good race.”

“Both of them should be competitive,” he said.