Tahiyra looms odds-on to make amends in Irish 1000 Guineas
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Tahiyra lost the 1000 Guineas on May 7 at Newmarket by a half-length in the end, but the filly really lost the race at the start. Favored at 3-2, Tahiyra lunged and lurched out of post 15, giving up several lengths in the process. In the end, she fell short of victorious Nawz while finishing 7 1/2 lengths ahead of the third-place horse. There is no Nawz on Sunday in the Irish 1000 Guineas, where Tahiyra as of Friday was about a 1-2 fixed-odds favorite with British bookmakers.
That’s a desperately short antepost price, but Tahiyra seems likely to make it stand up. Trained by Dermot Weld for her breeder, the Aga Khan, Tahiyra was making her first start over the quirky, undulating, straight-mile course at Newmarket, where Nawz already had raced three times. Making up the ground lost at the start during the Guineas’ middle stages, Tahiyra got on even terms about a furlong from the finish but could not quite close the deal. Sunday, she gets good ground at The Curragh, where Tahiyra won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last fall in just her second start.
How good was her performance that day? Moving effortlessly, she swept past a filly named Meditate to win by 2 1/4 lengths. Meditate came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf by 2 1/2 lengths.
Meditate also takes part in the Irish 1000 Guineas, another one-mile contest, this one run around a gentle bend over ground that was called “good” on Friday. Meditate likely did not care for the testing conditions last out at Newmarket, where she was a respectable sixth of 20, and probably can run better on Sunday. Better, though, will not be enough to handle Tahiyra, the mount of Chris Hayes.
While the Guineas is a nice race, the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup that immediately precedes it (post time 9:45 a.m. Eastern) is a very strong early-season contest for older horses over 1 5/16 miles.
The six-horse field has two extreme longshots, Lafayette and Trevaunance; a mid-priced hope in Piz Badile; and a big three of Vadeni, Luxembourg and Bay Bridge.
The three favorites all ran well below their best in their only races this year. In France, Bay Bridge was a modest third and Vadeni an even flatter fourth in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan on April 30. Luxembourg, who beat third-place Vadeni last September winning the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, made his 2023 debut in the Group 2 Mooresbridge on May 1 at The Curragh, finishing fifth as the odds-on favorite.
All three horses are strongly eligible to show considerable improvement on Sunday. Vadeni in particular would appreciate firmer footing, which he got last summer at Sandown following his French Derby triumph with a win in the Group 1 Eclipse, where Bay Bridge was fifth. Bay Bridge returned to capture the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot, but at age 5 has less upside than his 4-year-old rivals, and probably handles the going he got last month in France better than Vadeni.
Vadeni was second last October in the Arc, where Luxembourg finished seventh, and best race to best race, Vadeni appears to be the superior horse.
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