Sweet Victory viable alternative to Wealth Creation
When Yogi Berra famously uttered about a popular social venue, “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded,” he might well have been talking to horseplayers about betting Chad Brown turf horses.
Berra’s turn of phrase has entered the historical record as near-nonsense, but its logic is clear enough: Folks in the know, who went to the place before it got “cool,” had moved on. And like the spot Berra referenced, the Chad Brown turf starter continues to attract mass wagering attention, but are these horses losing their appeal to the in-crowd?
The question pertains to the featured eighth race Sunday at Gulfstream, a female-restricted, first-level, turf-route allowance in which Brown sends out a horse with a name apropos of the subject at hand – Wealth Creation.
Brown’s turf starters have long created plenty of wealth for their backers. Despite his stock’s huge popularity among gamblers, blind bets on all of his 1,753 grass runners over the last five years produced a $2 win return on investment of $1.97, a pretty remarkable number given the sample size. Over the last two years, Brown’s grass starters have won at a 26 percent clip while producing a $1.99 ROI. But in the more recent term – and this could just be small-sample variation within longer-term trends – there has been slippage.
Over the last six months, his turf horses have won at a 24 percent clip with a $1.94 ROI, and during the last 90 days through Thursday, DRF Formulator shows Brown’s turf horses winning at 18 percent and producing just a $1.38 ROI. His record with first-timers on turf – long a hot spot in the Brown portfolio – shows a similar trend line: a $2.81 ROI over the last three years but a $1.20 ROI for the last three months. That three-month sample shows a 3-for-18 win record with firsters on grass; the three winners went off at about 2-1. Too crowded, indeed.
As for Wealth Creation herself, sure, she could win. When last seen June 6 (long layoffs tend not to be an impediment to Brown-stable success), she finished second in a similar spot at Monmouth Park. But Wealth Creation doesn’t have an obviously significant edge over a few others Sunday, and the point is that such Brown-trained horses have become nearly automatic underlays.
Who does have a recently cracking ROI pertinent to this race? Todd Pletcher. DRF Formulator shows 59 Pletcher-trained turf allowance horses – like the rail-drawn Sweet Victory here – winning at a 29 percent clip while producing a $2.26 ROI over the last year. Sweet Victory had a wide draw, a wide trip, and trouble when last seen finishing eighth at about this class level last month.
Also worth a look is the Bill Mott-trained Darkandwindingroad, a fourth-time starter making her turf debut. She is out of a Storm Cat mare whose best race came on grass.