Sunday's TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Ultra Brat can overcome lengthy layoff in the Autumn Days

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

The first thing to notice about this race is the overall lack of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, and that gives Fire Key (#2) an edge. She has the right running style and the right rider in Paco Lopez, but I’m just not convinced that she’s quite as talented as a few others in here.

I think the two horses to beat are First of Spring (#1) and Stormy Victoria (#4). The former ran well after blowing the break in her U.S. debut, and the latter has every right to rebound after not handling a synthetic surface last time.

I’ll use both, but the horse that I want to bet is ULTRA BRAT (#12).

Ultra Brat has had some stops and starts in her career, but she’s actually run very well in her turf races. She put in a devastating late run to get up to win her turf debut going this distance in the 2016 Christiecat and then was cooked chasing a fast pace in the Pebbles. She’s gotten plenty of time off since winning at Gulfstream in December, but she’s run well off a layoff in the past. I’m hoping Nik Juarez uses her tactical speed to get her into a forward early position.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,2,4,11