Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Write Off Jerry finally gets back on preferred surface
Saratoga | Race 10 | Post Time 6:19 p.m. (ET)
This claiming finale is one of the most competitive races of the entire first week of the Saratoga meet. There’s no clear-cut favorite, as suggested by my morning line, which has Value Engineer (#3) as the shortest price in the main body of the field at 5-1. He is one of the keys to this race, since he showed plenty of early speed during his 2-year-old season and figures to be sent forward from his inside post. This will mark his first start for a tag after he faded in a couple of tougher races last year. With routine improvement through maturity he should be fast enough to contend against this field. Yet he does have to prove he’s made that step forward while also working out a trip with other speed in the race.
The Pace Projector suggests that horses like La Maquina (#1), Big Big Star (#2), and Vince the Prince (#12) could all have something to say about the early fractions. Among those likely pace players, La Maquina and Big Big Star both drew well towards the inside and seem to fit this spot well. The former should be fitter second off the layoff after getting shuffled back last time, and the latter gets some class relief.
Beary Funny (#6) handled turf pretty well in his debut over the surface last time. Unlike a couple of others who exit that race, he never saw the rail, racing two- to three-wide throughout. He doesn’t have to improve much on that effort to be competitive here, and I like his running style for this race.
My top pick is Write Off Jerry (#7), who switches back to turf after a series of dirt and synthetic starts. He showed affinity for turf in 2023, breaking his maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis before hitting the board against a much tougher field in October. He broke poorly that day and got a little rank but still rallied on for third. His form tailed off after that, but he seems to be coming back around since getting claimed by Joe Sharp. He got a little rank entering the backstretch last time as the leaders backed down the pace, but he still stayed on well thereafter. Tyler Gaffalione should be able to adjust now that he’s more familiar with him. I’m also encouraged that Joe Sharp is 14 for 65 (22%, $2.32 ROI) with 4-year-old and up non-maidens switching from dirt to turf routes over five years.