Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Tosconova Beauty better than last couple of results

Belmont at the Big A | Race 1 | Post Time 1:05 p.m. (ET)

It’s hard for me to trust any of the short prices in this claiming opener. Obrigada (#7) might be considered the horse to beat by some handicappers after she won at the $25k level last time. However, she had everything her own way up front that day in a race that lacked any pace. She still just barely held on in the late stages, and I think she has to run better to beat this group. She’s making her first start off the claim for Rob Atras, but he does not have particularly strong statistics with that move.

Awesome Annmarie (#8) also makes her first start off the claim, this one going out for David Jacobson. Aside from a couple of races in which she broke poorly earlier this year, she’s generally been in strong form since coming to New York. I like the outside post position for her, and she may not be favored.

Tyrona (#2) is a tough call for me. I can excuse her last race, since she was chasing a taxing pace against a horse who put in a career-best performance to win and then came back to win again against tougher at Aqueduct. Tyrona should appreciate the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs, and she will be tough if she runs back to her last sprint effort in June. Lindsay Schultz has posted some impressive statistics out of town, but she’s 0 for 6 at NYRA.

My top pick is Tosconova Beauty (#4). I tried this mare a couple of times at Saratoga, and she certainly outran her odds against a tougher field on July 28. While she’s disappointed since then, I think she’s run better than it appears in her last couple of starts. She was involved in a fast pace that completely fell apart two back, and then last time she was out of position right from the start in a speed-laden affair while also chasing outside against a rail bias. Furthermore, she had a shoe repair in the paddock that day, which is never ideal for delivering a top effort. She’s dropping to the lowest level she’s faced in a while, and I think she can outrun her odds again.