Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Sweet Bye and Bye should get more favorable pace setup in Athenia

Belmont | Race 9 | Post Time 4:55 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

Save for the longshot Story Time, you can make a valid case for all of the other entrants in this Athenia.

Perhaps then it’s unwise of me to land on the morning-line favorite SWEET BYE AND BYE (#6), but I do think we’ll get every bit of that 3-1 price, if not more, given how wide open this race is. Sweet Bye and Bye has been in career form now as a 5-year-old for Tony Dutrow. While she’s only won once since returning from the layoff this summer, she’s run well in all three of her starts. That was especially true last time when she chased a very fast pace set by the talented Blowout before both of them were swallowed up by the perfect-trip winner Viadera. A repeat of that performance will make her tough here, and she figures to get a more favorable trip tracking what should be a moderate pace set by Mitchell Road.

Her main rival is probably Call Me Love (#2), who gets significant class relief after facing some of the best turf horses in the country in the Diana. She does own a couple of speed figures that would make her pretty formidable against this field, but I haven’t been thrilled with most of her races in this country. I’m using her underneath, but I think others will offer better value.

One of those is her stablemate Feel Glorious (#3). She didn’t run well behind Sweet Bye and Bye in the Noble Damsel last time, but I thought the quick pace of that race took her and many other closers out of their comfort zones. She’s best when she can get held up behind a moderate tempo and burst through in the stretch. She also doesn’t mind a little give in the ground, which she could encounter on Sunday. Chad Brown has entered three fillies, but I’m not really that scared of any of them. Altea (#5) never wins, and She’s Got You (#7) and Tapit Today (#8) would both have to improve to upset the favorites.

THE PLAY

Win: 6

Exacta Box: 3,6

Trifecta: 6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5,7,8

Trifecta: 6 with 1,5,7,8 with 2,3